2015 Draft's Rising Stars & Falling Knives

[Tour2ma]

Here are lists of players whose stock has risen or fallen throughout the ordeal of there 2015 auditions. Data is taken from "Play The Draft" the stock market-like game in which Mud is now kicking my ass.

 

The site collects draft position data for hundreds of players across mocks far and wide, calculates that player's relative, overall position, and then for the top three rounds assigns the corresponding rookie salary to that player.

 

The first two numeric columns are the player's starting and current "salaries" in $mm. This data is recorded graphically for each player.

The last two numeric columns are the player's starting and current draft slots as determined by the following salary chart:

https://playthedraft.com/new-draft-order

• Biggest Winners:
  • Dante Fowler has made the biggest $ move gaining nearly $1.65mm.
  • Breshad Perrimen has moved up the most slots, over 76.
• Biggest Losers:
  • No surprise... Randy Gregory has cost himself the most money, $1.7mm.
  • Markus Golden has dropped the most spots with over 57 lost.

Risers

Dante Fowler 2.125 3.783 - 12 04 <------

Kevin White 1.925 2.989 - 14 06

Vic Beasley 2.000 2.878 - 12 07

 

Alvin Dupree 1.600 2.326 - 21 10

Danny Shelton 1.273 2.100 - 32 12

Malcolm Brown 0.703 1.641 - 59 19

 

Breshad Perriman 0.478 1.628 - 96+ 20 <------

DJ Humphries 0.517 1.410 - 96+ 29

Jalen Collins 0.542 1.200 - 96+ 33

 

Byron Jones 0.497 1.093 - 96+ 34

Phillip Dorsett 0.482 1.087 - 96+ 34

Jake Fisher 0.621 1.065 - 77 35

 

Stephone Anthony 0.491 0.814 - 96+ 51

Eric Rowe 0.460 0.794 - 96+ 61

Ali Marpet 0.469 0.622 - 96+ 77

 

Fallers

Brandon Scherff 2.800 2.393 - 07 11

Randy Gregory 3.650 1.951 - 04 13 <------

Eddie Goldman 1.700 1.383 - 18 30

 

Shaq Thompson 1.875 1.044 - 14 39

Cedric Ogbuehi 1.563 0.955 - 22 42

Ronald Darby 1.229 0.827 - 32 50

 

Sammie Coates 1.168 0.805 - 33 52

Trevin Coleman 0.953 0.804 - 42 52

PJ Williams 1.488 0.745 - 26 56

 

Devin Funchess 1.125 0.737 - 33 56

Nate Orchard 0.987 0.708 - 40 59

Brent Hundley 1.000 0.702 - 39 60

 

Ifo Ekpre-Olomu 1.019 0.583 - 38 96

Arie Kouandijo 0.793 0.522 - 52 96+

Markus Golden 1.059 0.518 - 39 96+ <-----

 

Gerod Holliman 0.938 0.506 - 43 96+

Josue Matias 0.893 0.499 - 46 96+

[wargograw]

Can someone give me a basic schooling on how the rookie contracts work? Do you just make a predetermined amount based on your draft position? I'll take a link too.

[Mudfly]

Here are lists of players whose stock has risen or fallen throughout the ordeal of there 2015 auditions.

 

Jake Fisher 0.621 1.065 - 77 35

Ali Marpet 0.469 0.622 - 96+ 77

Eric Rowe 0.460 0.794 - 96+ 61

 

Happy to see a few names we (appear to have)nailed in the earlier sleeper thread......got your guys Fisher and Marpet.....as predicted....and my guys Rowe and Rollins....

 

Ok, you forgot Rollins...but Ill let it slide......Quinten Rollins 0.580 0.767 - 84+ 52 (was as high as 1.015)(will rise again)

[Mudfly]

And...speaking of the game......anyone who wants to get into the Mel Kiper Challenge, it's the last week to do so(obviously)....

 

If you're into the whole draftnik thing, then this is a good chance to compete and see where you stack up with hundreds of others players.... and if your not, then its b-o-r-i-n-g......ha!

 

None the less, here's the link.....

 

https://playthedraft.com/leagues/2015-mel-kiper-challenge/join

[Tour2ma]

Can someone give me a basic schooling on how the rookie contracts work? Do you just make a predetermined amount based on your draft position? I'll take a link too.

There was a Bleecher Report article last year that did an OK job.

 

As I recall it was along lines of a pile of league money, fixed each year, that is divided up between teams based on total of their weighted picks.

 

Deal duration is also set by round taken with 1st and 2nd (I think) being 4 years, and 3rd and lower 3 years.

 

So total and duration are set, leaving Bonus and Guarantee and year-by-year Salary to "negotiate".

[Opal312]

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/22/nfl-rookie-contract-negotiations/

This should clear it up. As of 2011 teams don't have to tie up cap money on an unproven rookie. In most cases would make more than proven veterans.

[Mudfly]

a pile of league money, fixed each year, that is divided up between teams based on total of their weighted picks.

 

Deal duration is also set by round taken with 1st and 2nd (I think) being 4 years, and 3rd and lower 3 years.

 

So total and duration are set, leaving Bonus and Guarantee and year-by-year Salary to "negotiate".

good summary right there.......and to give a lil insight to the amounts.....here are a few of our more recent picks.....

 

Mingo.....16 mil/4yr......all 16 guaranteed

Gilbert....12 mil/4yr......all 12 guaranteed

Manziel.....8 mil/4yr.....all 8 guaranteed

Bitonio......5.4 mil/4yr.....3.5 guaranteed....

 

So....in summary.......Bito gets screwed.....hahahaha(thats a joke).........

[Flugel]

Here are lists of players whose stock has risen or fallen throughout the ordeal of there 2015 auditions. Data is taken from "Play The Draft" the stock market-like game

• Biggest Winners:
  • Dante Fowler has made the biggest $ move gaining nearly $1.65mm.
  • Breshad Perrimen has moved up the most slots, over 76.

 

I had to take off my Cliff Clavin uniform at warped speed after I delivered the mail that Perriman's stock was rising. I'm just not fast enough any more to outrun a bunch of Pitbull's looking at my calves like their Thanksgiving dinner.

 

I still think we'd be less apt to see Perriman up as high as #19 as we would DeVante Parker. I think the only way he comes here is if we get the horrible news Shelton is off the board at #12 and we trade back in round 1 for more picks.

 

This might not make any sense but what else is new? In a way, I'm glad so many people disagreed with my pov about prioritizing a play making WR early; because I've read enough compelling arguments against it that I won't feel as disappointed if it doesn't happen.

[Mudfly]

and now we have Dorsett and Agholor pushing hard to move into the first, giving us 6-8 potential WR's to tap early....

 

which, to me, only means it's another very deep class(and it is)....which, to me again, means it's one of the few positions you can afford to wait on and still get value later..........

 

Yes....we can pick a great one early.....but I think it will cost us a good D player in the end....

[Mudfly]

just gotta look at last years class to know they dont even come close to falling in order......Watkins was a SLAM dunk as #1, yet Beckham(#3) was the man......so, I did a lil research just to see where they all landed and here's what I found.......

 

33 WR's were drafted last year....(yep, 33 of em)(plus a bunch of UDFA's)....out of the 33, only 9 played over 500 snaps(or were starters).....plus there were 2 UDFA's that also earned starters minutes(500+snaps)........here are the final rankings according to PFF for those 11 who had 500+ snaps ....in order, according to their 2014 PFF rank(and actual draft pick position listed second)(and position according to other WR's third).......

 

#1....Odell Beckham.......Pick 1-12 (3rd wr taken)

#2....Mike Evans.............Pick 1-9 (2nd)

#3....Jarvis Landry..........Pick 2-63 (12th)

#4....Taylor Gabriel.........UDFA....(34th+)

#5....Jordon Mathews.....Pick 2-42 (7th)

#6....John Brown............Pick 3-91 (15th)

#7....Brandon Cooks......Pick 1-29 (4th)

#8....Sammy Watkins.....Pick 1-4 (1st)

#9....Kelvin Benjamin.....Pick 1-28(5th)

#10..DeVante Adams.....Pick 2-53(9th)

#11..Allen Hurns............UDFA (34th+)

 

I gotta add that past research pretty clearly confirms that only about 1/3 of all prospects chosen make it in the NFL.....33%.....and this list is pretty much exactly 33% of those WR's chosen last year.....tho Im sure a few will rise and a few will drop......