Drafting for need... based on the stats

[thenew23]

Here were our team stats for 2014:

 

Green = Top 10

Red = Bottom 10

 

Offense

Game stats:

Scoring: 18.7 (27th);

Yards per play: 5.1 (tied 26th);

3rd down %: 30% (tied for last);

Time of Possession: 28:13 (28th);

Turnover diff: +6 (tied 9th);

Three-and-out %: 27.98 (31st);

Scoring drive %: 28% (27th);

Offensive penalties per game: 3.7 (tied 17th)

 

Passing stats:

Comp %: 54.6% (32nd);

Yards per Game: 213.8 (20th);

Yards per completion: 7.3 (tied 13th);

TDs: 12 (32nd);

INTs: 16 (tied 19th);

QB Rating: 72.8 (31st);

Sacks allowed: 31 (tied 13th)

 

Rushing stats:

Yards per game: 108.0 (17th);

Yards per carry: 3.6 (tied 28th);

Rushes Stuffed %: 13.2% (32nd)

Rushing Big Plays: 42 (tied 18th)

TDs: 17 (4th);

Fumbles: 7 (tied 16th)

 

Receiving stats:

Drops %: 3.2 (tied 2nd);

Yards per catch: 13.4 (1st);

YAC per reception: 5.99(6th);

Fumbles: 0 (1st)

 

Defense

Game stats:

Scoring: 21.1 (9th);

Yards per play: 5.2 (tied 5th);

3rd down %: 38% (tied 10th);

Scoring drive %: 32.8% (14th);

Defensive penalties per game: 3.6 (tied 29th);

Fumbles forced: 23 (11th);

Defensive TDs: 3 (tied 6th);

 

Passing stats:

Comp %: 57.1 (1st);

Yards per Game: 224.5 (8th);

Yards per completion: 6.4 (tied 3rd);

TDs: 22 (tied 6th);

INTs: 21 (2nd);

QB Rating: 74.1 (1st);

Sacks: 31 (27th)

 

Rushing stats:

Yards per game: 141.6 (32nd);

Yards per carry: 4.5 (tied 27th);

Rushing Big Plays: 56 (tied 26th);

TDs: 13 (tied 19th);

Fumbles: 6 (tied 16th)

 

Receiving stats:

Drops %: 4.7% (12th);

YAC allowed per game: 101.4 (3rd)

 

That's a lot to take in... Look at the areas of weakness and you can figure which position groups need the most upgrade...

 

Our worst rankings on offense:

3rd down conversion % - Play calling, QB

QB Completion % - QB

Passing TDs - QB, Play calling, Red Zone targets (TE, Big WR)

Rushes stuffed % - O-line, Play calling, Passing game (QB, WR)

QB Rating - QB

Scoring - the entire offense

 

Common thread for our offensive problems seem to be at QB. We got rid of our O-coordinator. Our WRs stats were pretty impressive and we already upgraded a few of those spots. Based on the stats, I think we need a possession WR (Hartline) and a big-bodied redzone target at either TE or WR (draft)

 

Our worst rankings on defense:

Rushing yards per game and yards per carry - D-line

Sacks - Pass rushers

Defensive penalties

 

We need 2 things: to get better at stuffing the run by adding a true 3-4 NT, for early downs, to plug up the middle, and we need help from our pass-rushers. I think adding Starks helps get pressure from the line, and getting A.Bryant back will help; however, this team still needs to add an OLB who can get to the QB. As far as penalties, letting Skrine walk should be helpful in that area but overall the secondary needs to remain aggressive while at the same time being cautious not to get flagged as often.

 

Needs based on stats:

#1 - Quarterback - and it's not even close

#2 - 3-4 NT - run-stuffer

#3 - 3-4 OLB - pass-rushing specialist

#4 - WR or TE - red zone target

 

With 10 picks in the draft, we should be able to fill these needs...

[miktoxic]

sounds right.

 

without making any moves we can draft all 4 in the first 3 rounds.

[Tour2ma]

OK... muddled thru the color-blind confounding, red-green maze and your conclusions are simply not aligned with your own data... or at least your preconceived remedies are not aligned with my preconceived remedies.

 

First, you cannot address all the needs in this draft. All your picks combined will not satisfy your top priority. You can take a shot, even a good shot at improving our lot, but you cannot be sure you nail your QB... not in this draft.

 

Second, you ignored the bad running stats our Offense posted. The clear solution there is line depth that does not fall off a cliff when you call on the sixth man. If you assure that does not happen in 2015, then your anemic passing attack is going to look a helluva lot better... as will 3rd down conversion rate.

 

 

We're closer on the D-side... gotta stop the run. But I believe that when we do that, our QB pressures are going to rise just by nature of the down and distance distribution our 2015 foes will face.

 

1. Stop the run... NT/ILB

2. Run consistently... Interior O-line depth

3. Continue the QB search.

4. Add developmental skill players.

5. Set up 2016 Draft.

[thenew23]

If we somehow used our top 3 picks and ended up with Mariota (best QB) and Goldman (2nd best run-stuffer), I'd be thrilled.

 

That would leave us with 7 picks to address only 2 glaring needs, and those 2 needs (OLB and WR) are at probably the 2 deepest positions in this draft...

[thenew23]

5. Set up 2016 Draft.

I'm fine with everything you said, while we don't agree on everything, except this comment. I guess it just depends on what you mean by setting up next year's draft?

 

Second, you ignored the bad running stats our Offense posted... then your anemic passing attack is going to look a helluva lot better... as will 3rd down conversion rate.

 

Also, I think the opposite here. You can only do so much against 8-man fronts all season long... I don't care who your 6th o-lineman is... A more threatening QB easily improves our rushing attack IMHO

[Tour2ma]

I'm fine with everything you said, while we don't agree on everything, except this comment. I guess it just depends on what you mean by setting up next year's draft?

 

Also, I think the opposite here. You can only do so much against 8-man fronts all season long... I don't care who your 6th o-lineman is... A more threatening QB easily improves our rushing attack IMHO

I figure 1 or 2 picks will be traded out and up for 2016 picks... just seems to be Farmer's early MO.

 

I did the data through 4 or so 2014 games after the 8-man box argument became popular. We simply did not face 8 men often and when we did, we were successful against it as often as we were not. Our running attack fell off because our blocking was disrupted by the loss of Mack... pure and simple. You can see it in the O-line grades.

[thenew23]

If it wasn't an obvious 8-in-the-box set, then teams were scheming against the run and run blitzing often. I remember watching safeties and even corners playing the LOS because our QB couldn't complete a deep ball to save his life. Plus, the playcalling was so predictable that our PA bootleg stopped working around week 8 which was the only situation Hoyer could be successful.

 

Get a legit passing game and the rushing lanes will open themselves. Ask the Patriots. They didn't just run block their way to the SB, I'm pretty sure the constant threat of #12 shredding the D had something to do with it...

[gumby73]

Damn good nuts and bolts talk here fellows. --We have got to find a way to flip field position with more Big Plays from WR's, TE or bubble screens from backs. We start far to many drives deep in our end, can eat 5-7 mins. off the clock, gain 25-30 yrds. and punt. Better accurate QB, Flip I hope takes shots down field and the offensive penalties are killing us. At this point I almost favor MM and TheNews23 plan also.

[ballpeen]

Build the D and O-line.

[Mudfly]

I figure 1 or 2 picks will be traded out and up for 2016 picks... just seems to be Farmer's early MO.

 

yep....Im expecting some kind of pick consolidation too....not sure which year it will apply to...cause I think the odds of 10 rookies making this years team are slim (and much lower than last season)......

 

Trade up to give me 6 decent picks in the first 4 rounds and Im beyond happy

[The Gipper]

Yea, OK, it says we need a QB, a pass rusher and a run stuffer.

 

An offensive line upgrade would be #4 priority.

I am not as concerned about the running game.....as I pointed out elsewhere, last year the Browns rushing game was just as good as the Steelers, same amount of yards, a little less in ypc, more TDs though.

A breakaway run threat would not be bad. The Crown and West are good runners, but not really breakaway threats. A scatback at some point might be OK.

 

So, to draft for need....the Browns should:

 

Priority One: Draft either a run stuffer DL or MLB. Get a guy that can occupy the middle allowing the DEs/LB Kruger/Mingo more freedom to put pressure on the QB. Maybe a Shelton serves both purposes.

 

Priority Two: Get another pass rusher....especially if they continue this idiocy of not using Mingo for that purpose

 

Priority Three: Get another bulldozer for the OL.

 

Priority Four: Get a scatback....or even a big back that can get some breakaway runs. And USE the RBs in the pass game. Again, comparing to Steelers.....while the run game was pretty equal, their primary RB alone had over 800 yards receiving on 83 catches. Browns RBs gained less than 200 yards on like only 27 catches. We are not going to get that franchise QB. Get someone to help whoever we have back there.

I don't know if a TE could help here....

 

 

Maybe when some prognosticators say the Browns could take a RB in round one, they may not be out of line.

[The Gipper]

New or Mud. Maybe one of you can find how the Browns ranked in terms of the contribution of our RBs to the overall passing attack.

I suspect they rank very lpoorly.

 

I guess here I am reiterating two areas of disagreement I had with the Brownsphilosophy last year:

A. Not using Mingo as a primary pass rusher. He was drafted as a speed rusher...but of course that was by a different regime, coach/FA. But I still think that is his forte

 

B. Not using the RBs in the run game. That might have to do with the fact that we ended up with rookie RBs that may not have been trustworthy in that department...due primarily to inexperience. Well, get the experience....or get someone that can contribute in that fashion

[Mudfly]

 

B. Not using the RBs in the run passing? game. That might have to do with the fact that we ended up with rookie RBs that may not have been trustworthy in that department...due primarily to inexperience. Well, get the experience....or get someone that can contribute in that fashion

I agree.....screens and such were really rare.....30 passes caught by all of our backs last year (LeVeon Bell had 83 alone).....

 

I have no idea why we didnt throw to them......none......thats one to ask shanny.....

[Mr. Make-Believe]

 

Needs based on stats:

#1 - Quarterback - and it's not even close

#2 - 3-4 NT - run-stuffer

#3 - 3-4 OLB - pass-rushing specialist

#4 - WR or TE - red zone target

 

 

I agree with Gipper's addition of "bulldozer for OL"... And have to disagree with the idea that the Browns should be able to find a QB that will solve their issues at that position in the draft this year.

 

The rest of it though? Good post.

 

With the right picks, the Browns could get themselves within a good QB away from being a serious threat. I really don't think the team is too far off.

 

Is the relative consensus here that we should sort of forget about trading up for Mariota? Or is it the opposite?

 

I see a real opportunity to all-but finish laying the team's groundwork in this draft. I see mortgaging serious assets to grab a questionable QB prospect as having the potential to set the team back another year or two if Mariota doesn't pan out quickly.

[Westside Steve]

I hope we draft at number 32 next year.

 

WSS

[Tour2ma]

I thought you disliked trade-downs, Steve...

 

Yea, OK, it says we need a QB, a pass rusher and a run stuffer.

 

An offensive line upgrade would be #4 priority.

I am not as concerned about the running game.....as I pointed out elsewhere, last year the Browns rushing game was just as good as the Steelers, same amount of yards, a little less in ypc, more TDs though.

A breakaway run threat would not be bad. The Crown and West are good runners, but not really breakaway threats. A scatback at some point might be OK.

 

So, to draft for need....the Browns should:

 

Priority One: Draft either a run stuffer DL or MLB. Get a guy that can occupy the middle allowing the DEs/LB Kruger/Mingo more freedom to put pressure on the QB. Maybe a Shelton serves both purposes.

 

Priority Two: Get another pass rusher....especially if they continue this idiocy of not using Mingo for that purpose

 

Priority Three: Get another bulldozer for the OL.

 

Priority Four:

I don't see "run-stuffer" as an either/or... especially in this draft.

 

"Bulldozer" is the wrong OL type for the ZBS. O-linemen that can move fluidly are at a premium in this draft.

 

And since when are the Steelers your measuring stick?

[miktoxic]

 

I agree with Gipper's addition of "bulldozer for OL"... And have to disagree with the idea that the Browns should be able to find a QB that will solve their issues at that position in the draft this year.

 

The rest of it though? Good post.

 

With the right picks, the Browns could get themselves within a good QB away from being a serious threat. I really don't think the team is too far off.

 

Is the relative consensus here that we should sort of forget about trading up for Mariota? Or is it the opposite?

 

I see a real opportunity to all-but finish laying the team's groundwork in this draft. I see mortgaging serious assets to grab a questionable QB prospect as having the potential to set the team back another year or two if Mariota doesn't pan out quickly.

 

the mariota and winston hype is well founded but REALLY??? what kind of drop off is it from them to a petty or hundley? i see the tape of these guys and i'm just as much impressed by them as the first 2 and it's not going to cost you 2 first rounders to get one. i say go for it in round 2.

[The Gipper]

I thought you disliked trade-downs, Steve...

 

 

I don't see "run-stuffer" as an either/or... especially in this draft.

Are you saying that they don't need a run stuffer......or that you don't see that person being either a DT or an MLB? Explain.

 

"Bulldozer" is the wrong OL type for the ZBS. O-linemen that can move fluidly are at a premium in this draft.

Well.....what I meant is a 21st century Bulldozer.....one with 4 wheel turbo drive. A lean mean super charged machine:

 

And since when are the Steelers your measuring stick?

Since they won the division last year. Since they have been rivals. So choose....anywhere between 1950 and 2015.

Or, more precisely.....since I researched the comparative stats a few days ago.

 

[Westside Steve]

Ha. Most of the time I love trade downs. I just wanted to win the Superbowl next year so we draft at 32.

 

(but you knew that )

 

WSS

[wargograw]

 

I agree with Gipper's addition of "bulldozer for OL"... And have to disagree with the idea that the Browns should be able to find a QB that will solve their issues at that position in the draft this year.

 

The rest of it though? Good post.

 

With the right picks, the Browns could get themselves within a good QB away from being a serious threat. I really don't think the team is too far off.

 

Is the relative consensus here that we should sort of forget about trading up for Mariota? Or is it the opposite?

 

I see a real opportunity to all-but finish laying the team's groundwork in this draft. I see mortgaging serious assets to grab a questionable QB prospect as having the potential to set the team back another year or two if Mariota doesn't pan out quickly.

Agree with this take entirely. Especially with the two Ohio State QBs looming, Connor Cook, Cody Kessler, Christian Hackenburg, the new Auburn quarterback who I think is a stud, Jacob Coker (if he even starts), Dak Prescott, Kevin Hogan, Gunner Kiel, Patrick Towles, John Goff.

 

You want to sacrifice your chance at all that AND your opportunity to continue stacking the non-QB team so you can take a guy from a spread offense who had plenty of question marks? Not worth it.

[thenew23]

a guy from a spread offense who had plenty of question marks? Not worth it.

What question marks, other than he's a "system QB"? If I remember correctly, Aaron Rodgers dropped because he was a "system QB"... How'd that work out?

[wargograw]

Long, long list of them on the NFL's draft profile. Although I could argue the system is enough to justify it.

[tiamat63]

What question marks, other than he's a "system QB"? If I remember correctly, Aaron Rodgers dropped because he was a "system QB"... How'd that work out?

 

From what I remember of Rodgers, it had little to do with the offense he was in. Cal was a heavy pro-style team. His measurables just weren't "elite" for many scouts.