CBO: ObamaCare repeal bill would leave 23M more uninsured

[jbluhm86]

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/335000-cbo-obamacare-repeal-bill-would-leave-23m-fewer-people-with-insurance

[Westside Steve]

Bring back the mandate and stiffen the penalty for non compliance.

WSS

[calfoxwc]

no, universal hc for hundreds of millions of people can't be afforded. We need a real solution,

not the political nonsense farce of obaMaocare.

[Westside Steve]

Just for the record how many don't have coverage now because they choose not to purchase it?

 

WSS

[Tour2ma]

While 23mm over 10-years is big, the real, immediate impact is 14mm losing coverage in year one.

 

And that does not include those with pre-existing conditions that who will see their premiums skyrocket and be "priced out of the market", if their state "opts out" of ACA requirements in favor of high-risk pools. This can't be "scored" as each state's action cannot be predicted.

 

Bring back the mandate and stiffen the penalty for non compliance.

 

Not sure about need to "stiffen the penalty", but the mandate is absolutely one of the key elements needed.

 

Another key element is the "public option", i.e., access to Medicare for all who desire it, either directly or thru "service providers" as is the case for "seniors"... like I'll be in a little over three months. Medicare is the default option for all those counties seeing private insurers leave their market.

[Westside Steve]

Of course they need to stiffen the penaly. The penalty has to be as much or more then it would cost to purchase a policy.

 

And who Would-be afforded the opportunity to opt for joining the medicare roll?

 

And frankly I don't have a huge 'bitch against a public option but just wait till poor people have to sit for a few hours in a clinic Or wait months and months for treatment that those who pay their premiums get almost immediately.

WSS

[OldBrownsFan]

Obamacare is already in a death spiral. The republicans would have been wiser to just have their own healthcare plans in place for when it finally becomes unsustainable and then make the move to replace it. The democrats wanted single payer to begin with but settled for disastrous Obamacare knowing even if it failed it would be next to impossible to get rid of it totally as it is so much easier to make a new entitlement program and much harder to do away with an entitlement once in place. If Tour is right that 14 million will lose coverage in the first year of the GOP healthcare that would mean a whole lot of upset voters and that is the dilemma the republicans are in with trying to replace Obamacare. They like being re-elected.

[Westside Steve]

I'd wonder what the CBO projections would-be for keeping obamacare intacte.

 

WSS

[OldBrownsFan]

I'd wonder what the CBO projections would-be for keeping obamacare intacte.

 

WSS

 

Premiums going way up, sky high deductibles and employers cutting hours and not hiring new employees to keep from the Obamacare mandates are part of the death spiral of Obamacare right now. Insurers are dropping out because it is not profitable.

 

There are winners and losers in Obamacare (mostly losers) but the MSM constantly focuses on those who have been helped by Obamacare without any reporting of those who have been hurt by it.

[Canton Dawg]

What part of the "Affordable Care Act" is actually affordable??

 

I guess that's why the people paying zero dollars for it are the ones bitching.

[Westside Steve]

What part of the "Affordable Care Act" is actually affordable??

 

I guess that's why the people paying zero dollars for it are the ones bitching.

They just put a bunch more deadbeats on Medicaid.

Carved from the asses of the people who work and have to pay for it.

WSS

[jbluhm86]

They just put a bunch more deadbeats on Medicaid.

Carved from the asses of the people who work and have to pay for it.

WSS

 

I'm disappointed to hear you speak as such, Steve; I didn't take you as a person who painted with such a wide brush.

 

Back in 2013, after being laid off from my job of 5 years, I was without insurance for more than a year, because the part-time jobs that I worked while attending university full time were not obligated to offer me insurance due to my part time status. In late 2014, I was approved for Ohio Medicaid, which probably ended up being a life saver, because I developed a lipoma tumor on my thigh in 2015 that required surgery to remove. Luckily, the tumor ended up being benign, but if it was not for medicaid, I would have been unable to afford the surgery and that lipoma could have easily have become cancerous and killed me.

 

So no, not everyone who is on medicaid are a " bunch of deadbeats, carved from the asses of the people who pay for it". Some of us - the vast majority, I would wager - are hard working people who fall into circumstances which leaves little choice but to take Medicaid insurance.

[DieHardBrownsFan]

[BaconHound]

[Tour2ma]

Obamacare is already in a death spiral. The republicans would have been wiser to just have their own healthcare plans in place for when it finally becomes unsustainable and then make the move to replace it. The democrats wanted single payer to begin with but settled for disastrous Obamacare knowing even if it failed it would be next to impossible to get rid of it totally as it is so much easier to make a new entitlement program and much harder to do away with an entitlement once in place. If Tour is right that 14 million will lose coverage in the first year of the GOP healthcare that would mean a whole lot of upset voters and that is the dilemma the republicans are in with trying to replace Obamacare. They like being re-elected.

 

Not "Tour's" estimate... it's the CBO's.

 

As for the "death spiral"... the Republican-controlled House has been giving it a helping hand.

 

In December 2015:

Congress is passing legislation that “blocks several Obamacare provisions,” House Speaker Paul Ryan pointed out in his weekly press conference Thursday. A morning press release from House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy blared in bolded lettering: “The House Is Dismantling Obamacare.”

Among the provisions the House has either delayed or killed some key provisions:

• ... several taxes... designed, at least in part, to help cover the cost of expanding health coverage to millions more people.
• ... extend(ing) a measure, in place for the last year, to restrict how the government reimburses insurance companies participating in the insurance marketplace.

The first of the above moves decreased the deficit reducing impact of the ACA. It is a fact that the ACA was bringing down the deficit even without the additional taxes yet to be phased in by design.

 

Side Note: One of the two primary taxes was the so-called "Cadilac Tax", a/k/a "ultra insurance". The two principle customers of such plans? The very rich, naturally, but also Labor Unions. Neither group was very happy with the Dems or President Obama.

 

The second move is the one primarily responsible for the formation of "insurance deserts" that so many point to as the symptom of an impending collapse. The reimbursement provision's purpose was to "share the risk" insurance companies would face upon entering new markets. It essentially guaranteed that so long as they lived up the requirements of the act, that they would not lose money.

 

When the Republicans froze the distribution of these funds, they left insurers holding the proverbial bag. So naturally in regions where insurers ate losses, they either raised premiums or left that market segment. However, there was a second barrel to their shotgun approach... with no guarantees other insurers were reluctant to step into the voids left by the departing companies.

 

To be sure there are other market forces at work. Some are directly attributable to flaws in the ACA. An example was the above reimbursement plan which had the unintended consequence of leading some insurers to "low-ball" their premiums to increase market share. And why not low-ball with the ACA standing ready to reduce their wallet pain. But this, like other issues, is now known and can be fixed.

 

 

Italicized bullet points are from: http://www.newsweek.com/republican-moves-add-cost-obamacare-wont-kill-it-406761

[Tour2ma]

Of course they need to stiffen the penaly. The penalty has to be as much or more then it would cost to purchase a policy.

 

And who Would-be afforded the opportunity to opt for joining the medicare roll?

 

And frankly I don't have a huge 'bitch against a public option but just wait till poor people have to sit for a few hours in a clinic Or wait months and months for treatment that those who pay their premiums get almost immediately.

1. In many age groups the penalty was already equal to the premium. For some, those who got trapped in the premium assistance gaps and therefore could not afford to purchase insurance, it makes little sense to penalize them at levels equal to the unaffordable premium.

 

2. Everyone...

 

3. When you have insurance you can get these things called "appointments"; when you don't have insurance you can sit for hours in an ER. So I think the new Medicare recipients would be happy with the change.

[OldBrownsFan]

I believe the dems knew all along Obamacare was heavily flawed and in the end fail but they also knew once Obamacare failed it would likely be replaced with single payer which is what they really wanted all along. The republicans don't have to help Obamacare fail it is going to fail regardless because too many younger people have opted out and are willing to pay the penalty over buying Obamacare health insurance.

 

As for universal healthcare I have had a dose of government run health care through the VA and if it does happen the healthcare will be rationed and inferior healthcare. Bank on it. The government rarely does anything better than the private sector..

[Canton Dawg]

Obamacare in its current state is not sustainable, Ray Charles can see that. The dems want to throw a few more trillion $$ at it to see if it can fly. Unfortunately, their myopic vision thinks it can be paid for on the backs of the working class. The dems need to check their history on socialism, it's been tried for hundreds of years...it doesn't work.

[Tour2ma]

I believe the dems knew all along Obamacare was heavily flawed and in the end fail but they also knew once Obamacare failed it would likely be replaced with single payer which is what they really wanted all along. The republicans don't have to help Obamacare fail it is going to fail regardless because too many younger people have opted out and are willing to pay the penalty over buying Obamacare health insurance.

 

As for universal healthcare I have had a dose of government run health care through the VA and if it does happen the healthcare will be rationed and inferior healthcare. Bank on it. The government rarely does anything better than the private sector..

 

Glass half empty take, OBF... I do not think anyone thought the legislation was "perfect". Add that when Ted Kennedy passed and Scott what's-his-name won the Special Election in Massachusetts beating one of the singularly worst candidates the Dems in MA could have run, any fixes under consideration had to be shelved, and... there it is...

 

"Young people" opting to pay the penalty is nowhere near the top of the list of problems. In fact funding, even without enforcement of the penalty is not a problem. There's money in the system to reimburse insurers; there's money in the system to extend premium assistance to those caught in the support gap that emerged. However, without the revenue from the mandate ultimately being enforced and without the revenue from the taxes on the books, but being held back by the House, were the funds to be released to the insurers, then the drain would begin. Since the funds, owed to the insurers under the program for which they signed up, apparently are going nowhere fast... not an issue.

 

As for public vs private efficiencies... in terms of overhead costs, the efficiency of the administration of Medicare is unmatched. Less than one-third of all Medicare enrollees chose a privately administered, Medicare Advantage program, yet the overhead cost for all Medicare Advantage plans run almost triple that of "basic Medicare". The difference? Profit for one thing... the biggest thing.

 

One other way to look at it... Do you remember that under the ACA that participating insurers were required to pay out at least 80% of all premiums collects? It was part of the law and a very generous one at that. If an insurer fell short of 80% they incurred penalties.

 

Well in the 2014 CMS report (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services) to the Dept of Health and Human Services a total expenditure of $859.2 billion was reported and of this amount $826.7 billion were paid benefits.

 

The percentage in paid benefits was 96.2%.

 

When profit is involved the private sector cannot compete. Not in health insurance... not in education... not in corrections... and certainly not in the military.

 

Obamacare in its current state is not sustainable, Ray Charles can see that. The dems want to throw a few more trillion $$ at it to see if it can fly. Unfortunately, their myopic vision thinks it can be paid for on the backs of the working class. The dems need to check their history on socialism, it's been tried for hundreds of years...it doesn't work.

 

Trillions? That would be silly since it's paid its own way so far... See the above...

 

As for socialism... at least in healthcare, every other developed nation in the world disagrees with you. Our President even said so to his good buddy, the Prime Minister of Australia. I believe the exact quote was, "You have a great healthcare system." But you can check me on that.

[OldBrownsFan]

Obamacare is in a 'death spiral,' says Aetna CEO

 

Obamacare is in a "death spiral' and more insurers will flee in 2018, said Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini Wednesday.

More sick Americans are flocking to the Obamacare exchanges, which is pushing insurers' costs higher, Bertolini said at a Wall Street Journal forum. That, in turn, is forcing carriers to either abandon the market or raise their rates.

Bertolini's comments come on the heels of Humana's (HUM) decision to pull out of the individual market completely in 2018, citing an inability to offer a "viable product."

Aetna (AET), meanwhile, is still evaluating whether it will remain in the four states where it currently operates, but it will "lose a lot of money in those markets this year," said Bertolini. Anthem (ANTX) has also said it is reviewing its participation. Both insurers said they will announce their involvement in the spring.

 

Meanwhile, Molina Healthcare (MOH), one of the few insurers that has done well in Obamacare, said Wednesday that it may also downsize.

 

"We believe there are simply too many unknowns with the marketplace program to commit to our participation beyond 2017," CEO Joseph Molina said in an earnings call. "We will wait and see how the new administration and Congress will adjust the program, and we plan to evaluate our participation on a state-by-state basis."

 

Related: Humana pulls out of Obamacare for 2018

 

For Aetna, between 1% and 5% of its customers account for 50% of its costs, depending on the market, Bertolini said. And in many places there is little competition and risk-sharing, he said, citing Nebraska, where Aetna is the only player.

"There isn't enough money in the ACA today as it is structured -- even with its fees and taxes -- to support the population that needs to be served," he said.

 

Talk of Obamacare being in a death spiral ramped up last year when Aetna and several other carriers decided to scale back their exposure to the exchanges after sustaining multimillion dollar losses. That left consumers in 70% of the nation's counties with only one or two companies on the exchanges and became a major talking point for Republicans, who say the program is collapsing.

A death spiral occurs when consumers have fewer, more expensive choices, which prompts healthy people to exit, leaving an even sicker pool of policyholders in the exchanges. Eventually, all of the insurers withdraw.

 

Related: Aetna CEO: We will not expand Obamacare in 2018

 

Obamacare supporters have defended the law, saying it was going through an expected transition period that would only last a year. President Trump and Congressional Republicans have promised to repeal and replace the program, though they remain divided over how to do so.

 

Before the GOP can dismantle Obamacare, however, they have to stabilize it since it will take at least a year or two for their plan to take effect. Republicans have promised that Americans will not lose their coverage during the transition. The Trump administration Wednesday issued a proposed rule that would address some of insurers' concerns in hopes of keeping them in the market while Republicans determine what to do.

 

CNNMoney (New York) First published February 15, 2017: 1:07 PM ET

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/15/news/economy/aetna-obamacare-death-spiral/

[Tour2ma]

Doesn't refute a single point I posted, OBF... just reiterates "death spiral"... and in fact infers it due to insurers pulling out, which I explained.

 

But how's that promised stabilizing coming along?

 

Before the GOP can dismantle Obamacare, however, they have to stabilize it since it will take at least a year or two for their plan to take effect. Republicans have promised that Americans will not lose their coverage during the transition.

[calfoxwc]

bs, Tour

*****************

https://newrepublic.com/article/115661/obamacare-plan-cancellations-faq-about-what-do-next

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/09/23/its-official-obamacare-will-increase-health-spending-by-7450-for-a-typical-family-of-four/#24dfaeec6015

 

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2993728/posts

 

https://moneymorning.com/2013/05/14/15-obamacare-facts-the-president-doesnt-want-you-to-know/

 

15 Obamacare Facts You Must Know

• Roughly six million of the 19 million people with individual health policies will pay more. Single adults age 21-29 will be walloped with a 46% increase.

• Three million people will lose their insurance altogether, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects.

• Six million will have to pay the individual tax mandate penalty in 2016 because they don't want or won't be able to afford coverage.

• People that have insurance via an employer could have their plan dropped as a result of increasing rates. By 2019 (five years into Obamacare), an estimated 12 million people who would have had an offer of employment-based coverage under prior law will lose their offer, the CBO reports.

• Health insurers will need to increase premiums between 1% and 9%.

[OldBrownsFan]

Doesn't refute a single point I posted, OBF... just reiterates "death spiral"... and in fact infers it due to insurers pulling out, which I explained.

 

But how's that promised stabilizing coming along?

 

 

But why are insurers pulling out? Because not enough healthy people are signing up for Obamacare while those who are the sickest are flocking to it. The dems answer is to throw more money at the problem which is only throwing good money out for bad.

[Tour2ma]

 

.

[Tour2ma]

But why are insurers pulling out? Because not enough healthy people are signing up for Obamacare while those who are the sickest are flocking to it. The dems answer is to throw more money at the problem which is only throwing good money out for bad.

 

When the mandate is gutted and insurers get stiffed on the deal they signed up for what do you expect? Do some research yourself on the causes of what is happening.

 

Go deeper... you have the symptoms right, but simply have not gotten to the cause. Unlike the other "responder" you have the brains and enough openness to do so.

[calfoxwc]

wait, in the other thread you liberals talk about live and let live...then you now

support screwing over Americans and forcing them to buy your political insurance crap.

 

and force Christian bakers to bake false perverted "marriage" cakes.

 

and on and on it goes. Liberal dicktatership.

[OldBrownsFan]

 

When the mandate is gutted and insurers get stiffed on the deal they signed up for what do you expect? Do some research yourself on the causes of what is happening.

 

Go deeper... you have the symptoms right, but simply have not gotten to the cause. Unlike the other "responder" you have the brains and enough openness to do so.

 

Younger people know they are getting taken for a ride with Obamacare and that really is how it was set up. Having experienced the VA hospital first hand and seen government run health care in action I don't think many people who are clamoring for universal healthcare will be happy with the results if it happens.

 

 

There were problems in the healthcare that needed to be addressed and I would have liked to have seen market reforms such as tort reform to try and cut down on the ambulance chasing lawyers, allowing consumers to buy health insurance across state lines. Insurers refusing those with pre existing conditions was a huge problem that needed to be addressed. Also pharmaceuticals with drug prices.

I think these could have been addressed without Obamacare.