Mudfly Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Alrighty.....spent a lot of time on this, so I hope it helps some of you guys or offers some insight.... Decided to go through the entire season, one game at a time, and try to get my head around what happened with the run defense....when did it happen?....who played well consistently and who didnt...were there trends?....no?.....yada yada......used mostly PFF for the game to game player scores and, of course, NFL stats for the traditional #'s..... The first thing that came to light were 3 distinct "statistical eras" for our run D.... ERA 1 Games 1 thru 7 = we gave up 156 yds per game(6 games).....this first block was pretty consistently poor for all 6 games. We were learning the new system, but fairly healthy(obviously) overall. The only reasonable answers to "why" we played so poorly are that we were learning a new system and/or just played poorly.... ERA 2 Games 8 thru 14 = we gave up 105 yds per game(7 games)....ok, this block we did really well and completely shut some teams down for a decent stretch. The one exception was game 11(Texans) where we gave up big yards(216)...remove this game and we had a 6 game run giving up only 86 yds per game......which is exceptional!!!! ERA 3 Games 15 thru 17 = we gave up 191 yds per game(last 3 games)....and, at the end, we drove off a cliff....complete failure to stop any back the last 3 games..... So, with those 3 distinct eras, I wondered "who" showed up when and how they coincide with players performance ratings, injuries, etc.....Im gonna try to understand who played best and who played worst and how it all relates.... ERA 1: Everyone is healthy except John Hughes, but we have a new system to work out. So some rough edges should be expected. Rubin went down after the third game, so by game 4 both he and Hughes were out. Everyone else is pretty much available. I went game to game and broke out the top and bottom performers run defense ratings for each game. To highlight the very best and very worst players each weeK.... The #1 consistent top performer(4 games outta 6) was Carlos Dansby and the first 3 games the other best run stoppers were Kruger and Sheard. Conversely(this is where it gets interesting) the worst scores for run D went to Rubin(games 1 &2) and the 2 Bryants....but once Rubin goes down, the LB's suddenly started getting lower scores and krugers run d starts sliding. It would appear the last 3 games that the LB's are adjusting to cover more run, but not doing so well with it. Clearly, Kruger struggled the most, while Dansby and Sheard really stepped it up. So...era #1....top performers were generally linebacker and mostly Dansby & Sheard as the most effective. And the ONLY DL to score a "top rating" was John Hughes in the one game he played. ERA 2: By now we have lost Hughes, Rubin, A bryant and Taylor...plus D. Bryant & Winn are nursing injuries and missing some games too....and Hughes is almost ready to return. So, with the better part of the D-line out and/or injured, we enter into our best and most effective run D era....(weird right?)...Im thinking this is because Pettine is adjusting personnel assignments, as the one big change that happens here are the safeties....suddenly Whitner shows up as our #1 run stuffer and the run D starts functioning at it's peak. Gipson and Leonards name both start showing up too, which tells me the DB's gained run responsibility as time went on.... The top run performer during this "very good" period was clearly Donte Whitner....followed by Mingo. And these guys didn't even register in the first era. So did they start playing better? or just gain responsibility because the guys in front of them couldn't get it done......the worst rated players were all DL...D. Bryant, Fua, Rubin(in fact....Rubin was rated in the bottom 2 in almost every game he played upon his return) ERA 3: Im not gonna get too wrapped up in these last 3 games, because it was a death spiral. Just the names tell the story.....our top rated players were Poyer, Kitchen and Solomon...HA! and the bottom feeders were names like Fua, Meder, Bryant and Leonard.... Which says it all.....there was no one left...... So....with about 30 guys playing Defense over 16 games.....either Rubin(6) or D Bryant(5) were rated the worst player in 11 of them(ouch)......and Whitner(5), Dansby(4) and Sheard(4) took the honors for being rated the best against the run...consistently TOP 5 RUN STOP SCORES - (its troubling to have 2 DB's and NOT have a DL on this list) Sheard +9.4 Mingo +6.5 Whitner +5.5 Dansby +3.2 Gipson +2.7 Note: John Hughes scored very well in the few games he played and is the only D lineman to have a positive PFF this season. So...props to him anyway. BOTTOM 5 RUN STOP SCORES Rubin -9.6 D. Bryant -7.2 Fua -6.6 Winn -3.6 Taylor -3.6 Note: All DL.....everyone of them. So, my final take away is this......we started out with a radically new system and players at new positions, which Id expect to take a while to gel, but instantly lost our D line....and this put pressure on the coaches to adjust to compensate, so other players(DB's and LB's) started carrying addition run responsibilities...which lowered their overall performance too....and the D line just got worse with more injuries(never the same rotation(ever))...then some backers went down and Sheard/Mingo/Dansby all played hurt just to cover for the massively damage line..... So the line was all 2nd/3rd stringers being backed up by injured or 2nd string backers..... and, fortunately, the CB's and FS were amazing and kept it all in check so the LB's and SS could at least stay home and try to help out..... So, I see that we need help at DL(as we all thought) and that Rubin and Desmond Bryant were the 2 worst performers....and they were both really bad. Coincidentally, they are our 2 highest paid as well. And John Hughes, when he played, played really really well..... And our LB's were actually quite good and only started to slip when they had extra piled on.....and THEY definitely helped save the day during that "era 2" stretch that we played so well.... And Donte Whitner did so much more than any of us give him credit for....when Dansby was hurt and during those games we completely stopped the run, he was off the hook and the primary difference.... So...with a year in the system and the return of a healthy roster, it really DOES look like we only need to add a couple DL and replace Sheard and we can be back on track with the run D and have all the fixins for a dominant defense.....with depth.... But I do say, if we replace anybody based upon performance, it should be Rubin and D. Bryant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal312 Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 What an excellent breakdown! You might consider creating your own website because this is a better read than anywhere else I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Thanks Opel... Ok...now gonna do some Line backer break out, as it seems they all have their traits and its a position in flex and one where we are trying to see how Pettine uses them overall...(or at least I am)... First, to keep it simple...they are rated in 3 areas, plus the combined overall score....Run D, Pass D & Pass Rush... You can clearly see that each LB has pretty clearly defined strengths and weaknesses...which, to put it another way, means they are almost all "specialists"...or kind of one dimensional in how they are used.... First, lets give credit where it's due...our #1 rated linebacker(by a mile) was Dansby +13.9 (a GREAT signing too)...Not only is he our best LB, but he is still a top 10 type of talent......and the main reason he is #1 rated is that he is the most versatile and, probably, the only true 3 down backer we have. He scores well in all catagories(no negatives) and is therefore our most complete backer. His primary job in our D is to cover TE's and backs and spy pass routes, then come up if needed for the run stop....and his ratings support this with off the charts "pass d" numbers, which have him tied as the #2 coverage LB in the NFL. And he was able to maintain this super high pass coverage rating, while still having to mind the run because of our terrible line... The next 2 Im gonna cover are Sheard +8.2 and Kruger +9.8, who both also earned very nice scores in the green and, at a glance, look very similar(at least score wise). The interesting contrast here is that Krugers score is ALL pass rush, while Sheards score is ALL run stop. In fact, Kruger was +12 as a pass rusher, but earned negatives in run stop. And Sheard had the teams highest run stop #'s, but have very average coverage/pass rush. It's pretty clear that Pettine likes Kruger as a bull rusher, but he is limited beyond that and he used Dansby and Sheard as the more flexible backers and moveable parts....other notable(interesting) stats on the 2 are that Sheard is an excellent tackler and only missed 2 the entire season....THAT is an amazing stat....conversely, Kruger was the LB that had the most missed tackles with 13....(surprised?)..... Robertson +2.2 get's his own paragraph just because. He's a kind of vanilla - average player, but in a solid good way. A lot of middling players get "avg" grades(+0) by playing great one day(+5) and terrible one day(-5) to get a middling grade. But Robertson is one who seems to never be great or terrible. Just a steady average player(which is ok, I think)....I'd consider him a Chevy - wont win many races, but wont completely let you down either.....But really, his performance is fairly bland and there are no real strengths or glaring weaknesses to point out....I will note that he had to fill in for Dansby for a 4 week period and, though he did pretty well, his scores were really low for those games(esp in pass coverage). So I think relieving Dansby hurt his overall score. The last 2 gonna cover are the most interesting and, I think, will surprise some and create a little debate. They are the 2 youngsters Mingo +8.6 and Kirksey -3.8, who Id say are ranked the opposite of what most people might guess(at least based upon what I hear people say here). I know I was surprised by what I found....but once I dug in and went back game to game, my final perspective is a little different than what I felt at the end of the season. Kirksey really did well in a couple preseason games, but really never found that flair again during the regular season. He is the ONLY LB on the team to earn an overall negative score. And adding to it, is the fact that he was negative in 2 outta 3 categories, earning a + grade only for pass coverage. The silver lining is thats really not a bad score for a rookie backer and he had 3 really good games, which happen to be the games he started(while Dansby was down)....so he did show up when he got the chance and played better later in the season...On the other hand, MINGO our much maligned OLB, looks to have played pretty well overall and (honestly) has the best set of scores, second to Dansby.....and his scores have him as the only other one who is strong in multiple disciplines Run D, Pass rush and coverage....here are some surprises...he was our #2 rated run stopper on the whole team, second only to Sheard....he was also #2 pass rusher, second only to Kruger(it was just rare that he got the chance, but he penetrated when he did).....and his weakness was pass coverage(and not real bad either), and we know Pettine said they were askng him to do this, even though it wasn't his forte....so....Id say he's quietly playing pretty well....and with an injured shoulder(and harness) and hope(expect) for him to have a break out season in 2015.... So...honestly....they all did quite well and, considering they had to cover the run, I think the LB's performed above and beyond... Final PFF overall NFL ratings for our guys(who are right in a row)..... Dansby +13.9.....# 8 ILB Kruger + 9.8......#14 OLB Mingo + 8.6......#15 OLB Sheard + 8.2 .....#16 OLB Robertson +2.2...#19 ILB Kirksey -3.8....... #32 ILB If we can replace Sheard with equal or better, I feel like this is a very solid group, with a lot of upside for Mingo and Kirkey to blossom....there is definitely room(need) for talent at ILB(depth) and OLB(pass rush).....but still the best group we've had since?....a loooooooong time ago..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 How about giving us the link to where you are getting these rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miktoxic Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 holy shit batman, great stuff! i would have never guessed that we played a better run D when rubin went out and taylor was back and forth. glad to see mingo wasn't as bad as people had thought. prob take a DL with the 12th if there's no movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unsympathetic Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Thanks so much! I love seeing stats that grade out how players actually do every play. As they say, you're exactly as good as your record. This eliminates the blowhardiness of people who come on and talk about how REAL FOOTBALL COACHES look at "Things Everyone Knows" and therefore Because He Tries Really Hard, we should pay big bucks to some incompetent old free agent who's been cut by 4 teams.. or trade Joe Thomas for a backup linebacker. I thought Mingo was not that good, but hopefully next year he'll be even better.. It's pretty astounding he was able to play the entire year with his shoulder in a sling. It's frustrating that Kirksey's ceiling is probably Robertson.. but not shocking given that Kirksey was only a 4th round pick. Not shocking that Rubin and Taylor stink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miktoxic Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Not shocking that Rubin and Taylor stink. hilarious!! i thought taylor was the mainstay of the D line.......hard to believe that sometimes what you perceive to see with your own two old assed blind eyes is really not what is happening. man, i need to start taking drugs (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 How about giving us the link to where you are getting these rankings. Mostly from PFF and I cant cut/paste or link to it cause its a pay service... glad to see mingo wasn't as bad as people had thought. prob take a DL with the 12th if there's no movement. Me too....I was pretty hard on him(Mingo) this year.. yes, id say take best "front 7" available...example, if Shelton was gone, but Beasley was still there....BAM...hes a Brown! Thanks so much! I love seeing stats that grade out how players actually do every play. As they say, you're exactly as good as your record. It's frustrating that Kirksey's ceiling is probably Robertson.. but not shocking given that Kirksey was only a 4th round pick. Yep...they help tell the whole story....Hey, Mingo cant get a sack if coach doesnt rush him, right?....yet, people grade him on not having enough sacks....or Kruger is great because he had 11 sacks, yet thats the only thing he did well....etc etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nice job, Mud... buy yourself a beer... on me... Couple questions: Are all the ratings vs. the run only? I'm guessing yes, since it was a run D analysis (duh), but I got a little confused when you started breaking down Sheard vs. Krugs and the relative pass/run contributions to their grades. In the game grades vs. run... do they note positives for occupying blockers? Assuming yes, what's the weight vs. a solo tackle vs. an assist? The latter question is the biggie as it would seem that in the 1st ERA when the LBs were leading as designed, then the DL must have been keeping them clean, yet the DL graded lower. Can't make sense of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nice job, Mud... buy yourself a beer... on me... Couple questions: Are all the ratings vs. the run only? I'm guessing yes, since it was a run D analysis (duh), but I got a little confused when you started breaking down Sheard vs. Krugs and the relative pass/run contributions to their grades. In the game grades vs. run... do they note positives for occupying blockers? Assuming yes, what's the weight vs. a solo tackle vs. an assist? The latter question is the biggie as it would seem that in the 1st ERA when the LBs were leading as designed, then the DL must have been keeping them clean, yet the DL graded lower. Can't make sense of that... Thanks Tour....been putting it together for a while now.... #1...I have no answer for that first one... #2... see how that can be confusing....The first block I posted was run D specific and all the LB...DB ...DL ratings were run d only ........BUT...the second block I posted(on LB's) is an overall rating for them...includes Run D, Pass D and Pass ratings.... #3...No. They dont give us specifics stats for holding a block, per se....but it is in the equation and factored. They do not reveal the weighting. They also incude a "stop" stat that is one of my favorites. Which is basically given when that player creates the end of an offensive play. Here's a good example....picture this(cause we all can)....Mingo comes flying thru at 100mhp on the blitz and hits the QB....freezes him....but doesnt bring him down.....and instant later Kruger(or anyone) finishes him off...gets the sack.....and we all chortle about Mingo and his one armed missed tackle....right?.....but HE gets the stop at PFF.....cause he, in essense, ended the offensive plays progress.....So, I like the "stop" concept very much and the fact that they break it out there(nice stat)..... The Lb rating contradiction in era 1 is mostly explained by the perceived assignments over that period and those who are grading them...meaning the last 3 games of Era 1, the LBs were perceived as having much more run responsibility than they were the first 3 games, and were graded differently because of it..... it would take a lot of paragraphs to show how exactly I came to it, but the cliffs notes are they do break out "run snaps" vs "pass snaps" and you can see it per game/per snap basis(and it's not run/pass plays...its what that player played on that snap, see?)....and then you can easily see the trends(and adjustments the D was making)......LB plays run 10 snaps/gm for 3 games, then suddenly plays run 30 snaps/gm for 3 games and grades change dramatically over those same games.....etc... Im gonna post a follow up to this that kinda shows some of the formation changes he made and how the grades coincide....it'll help with the overall picture.....but not today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal312 Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Rubin signed a one year deal with Seattle. Browns definitely go defense at #12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted March 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 Rubin signed a one year deal with Seattle. Browns definitely go defense at #12 curious how much he's gettin?......even with all the bad things I said about his play this year, he was a good player for us for quite a while(and very good teammate). I think he could rebound from his injury and do well. The 4-3 Seattle plays should work well for him.....so good luck and adios to the Ruben sammich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wargograw Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Great data. Have another beer. This one on me. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Ah, 17 games? Did we make the playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unsympathetic Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Gotta disagree with u on Rubin.. Rubin was a 6th rounder for a reason: He's very limited athletically. He was decent until he was unable to compensate. I don't think he'll be even serviceable in Seattle.. he's done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippinTurtles Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Danny Shelton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gftChris Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Ah, 17 games? Did we make the playoffs? Guessing he meant weeks, but, yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexasAg1969 Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Guessing he meant weeks, but, yeah... Damn I was hoping I had slept through our playoff loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Im gonna post a follow up to this that kinda shows some of the formation changes he made and how the grades coincide....it'll help with the overall picture.....but not today.... No hurry, my friend... thanks for the reply... cleared the methodology up some... Great data. Have another beer. This one on me. Thanks. ... or on mik, if you win the bet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted March 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Ah, 17 games? Did we make the playoffs? Guessing he meant weeks, but, yeah... yes, you got it...... era 1 was 6 games over 7 weeks.....I coulda spelled that out a little better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 im very surprised by Dansby's PFF rating. He looked out of place and consistently in the wrong gap all season long...just like all our LB'ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gipper Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 im very surprised by Dansby's PFF rating. He looked out of place and consistently in the wrong gap all season long...just like all our LB'ers. That describes D'Qwell Jackson...you sure you didn't sleep through last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudfly Posted March 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 im very surprised by Dansby's PFF rating. He looked out of place and consistently in the wrong gap all season long...just like all our LB'ers. Ha....Im not surprised that you are surprised.... we definitely have different perspectives on how Pettine uses these guys.... That describes D'Qwell Jackson... Double HA!... Yeah, Id take Dansby a thousand times over DQ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippinTurtles Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 Casey Hampton, Vince Wilfork, Haloti Ngata, now Danny Shelton. Those type of players come around almost never. Steal Shelton and watch the rest of the D become elite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 yeah I just don't know what you guys were seeing with Dansby. He made some nice plays in the backfield when he blitzed, that was all I can say he did alright on for most of the season. His reactions to the run were horrible. He may have made the stop eventually which is why his ratings were ok but that was after the runner already made 5-10 yds. It's just hard for me to imagine that the worst run D in the league can have an ILB'er with a high run defense rating. It makes no sense. We'll see this year. I'm going to be watching our ILB'ers like a hawk. And this coming season i'm not gonna accept the argument, if our run D sucks again, that the d line isn't getting the job done. I'm going to look at his one on one matchups, cause at some point every LB'er in the league has to fight off a blocker. You can't make the argument that one OL makes it to the 2nd level that oh well I guess that neutralizes our whole interior run defense, which is what it looked like happened last year. Maybe it was Dansby and Kirksey not working well together, I dunno. I'm not giving our D line a complete pass either, but watching the stretch plays all season long gives you a real good idea of what your ILB'ers are made of. And i'm sorry but from what I saw Dansby never made his way through the redwoods. DQ did it all the time, "maybe" DQ was better side to side than up the middle...a fair opinion...but his side line to side line pursuit was vastly better than anybody on our roster now save maybe for Robertson. You guys had to have noticed how Robertson was getting through on those stretch plays when he was starting later in the season. He wasn't world class by any means but he was showing the baseline competencies of what you expect from an ILB'er. At the beginning of the season Kirksey and Dansby were always stuck behind the wall running to the sideline. I don't know if our scheme was putting them in different positions on those plays or what, but watch any of the good defense's in the NFL and you see their inside LB'ers flashing through the lineman as they make their way to the sideline. Ray Ray was the best ever at doing this. Drove me nuts when we played the Ravens cause it would look like our RB had the sideline and then that cunt would flash through just as the runner was about to cut upfield. I love watching Kuechly because he's that sideline to sideline monster who will also fly north to make stops at the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tour2ma Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 yeah I just don't know what you guys were seeing with Dansby. It's just hard for me to imagine that the worst run D in the league can have an ILB'er with a high run defense rating. It makes no sense. We'll see this year. I'm going to be watching our ILB'ers like a hawk. And this coming season i'm not gonna accept the argument, if our run D sucks again, that the d line isn't getting the job done. I'm going to look at his one on one matchups, cause at some point every LB'er in the league has to fight off a blocker. Too bad someone did not do an analysis of our run D... If you are saying that you are going to DVR and breakdown every game, then good... I look forward to your write ups. However, if you are going to peddle your anecdotal game impressions, half of them live and in person, as analysis, then don't bother. Even were you disciplined enough to not "watch the game", you simply cannot analyze 3 DL and 4 LB every play in two or fewer viewings, and then remember 70-odd plays hours later when you get to a PC. Sorry... can't be done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 Too bad someone did not do an analysis of our run D...If you are saying that you are going to DVR and breakdown every game, then good... I look forward to your write ups.However, if you are going to peddle your anecdotal game impressions, half of them live and in person, as analysis, then don't bother. Even were you disciplined enough to not "watch the game", you simply cannot analyze 3 DL and 4 LB every play in two or fewer viewings, and then remember 70-odd plays hours later when you get to a PC.Sorry... can't be done...mudfly did a good job with his analysis not taking anything away from him. My only issue is i dont really know the nuances of how alot of those stats are compiled. Alot of it i guarantee is sketchy and they know it ...its compiled mainly for fantasy league honks who need something with numbers to tell them things that people who played can see for themselves. I know what i saw at the beginning of last season before the injuries started...i just dont know why i was seeing it. If i had all 22 access then "maybe" i could see something that the browns are doing with their ilb'ers that no other 3-4 team is doing...thats entirely possible. When it comes to pro level football schemes i fully admit im lost in the tall weeds. Especially at the more skill positions. In the trenches though things are a little simpler and its more of a "beat ur man" environment. But i saw right away what the staff started to do with our olb'ers in the run game midway through the season that none of u picked up on...and it coincided with our run losing edge containment. So iknow a little about what im talking about and when i read something i wasnt aware of i try to go read up on it cause its fun to actually comprehend the nuances of the game as they happen infront of u and not just be a drooling idiot or s neckbeard stats homo. So i will go read up on precisely these run stats are compuled and yes rest assured that for at least a couple games i will rewinding alot of plays and trying to see exactly whick cocksucker was just responsible for that b gap handoff that just went for 10 yds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiamat63 Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 Too bad someone did not do an analysis of our run D... If you are saying that you are going to DVR and breakdown every game, then good... I look forward to your write ups. However, if you are going to peddle your anecdotal game impressions, half of them live and in person, as analysis, then don't bother. Even were you disciplined enough to not "watch the game", you simply cannot analyze 3 DL and 4 LB every play in two or fewer viewings, and then remember 70-odd plays hours later when you get to a PC. Sorry... can't be done... A couple times last year I sat there with pencil and paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flugel Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 Alrighty.....spent a lot of time on this, so I hope it helps some of you guys or offers some insight.... Decided to go through the entire season, one game at a time, and try to get my head around what happened with the run defense....when did it happen?....who played well consistently and who didnt...were there trends?....no?.....yada yada......used mostly PFF for the game to game player scores and, of course, NFL stats for the traditional #'s..... The first thing that came to light were 3 distinct "statistical eras" for our run D.... ERA 1 Games 1 thru 7 = we gave up 156 yds per game(6 games).....this first block was pretty consistently poor for all 6 games. We were learning the new system, but fairly healthy(obviously) overall. The only reasonable answers to "why" we played so poorly are that we were learning a new system and/or just played poorly.... ERA 2 Games 8 thru 14 = we gave up 105 yds per game(7 games)....ok, this block we did really well and completely shut some teams down for a decent stretch. The one exception was game 11(Texans) where we gave up big yards(216)...remove this game and we had a 6 game run giving up only 86 yds per game......which is exceptional!!!! ERA 3 Games 15 thru 17 = we gave up 191 yds per game(last 3 games)....and, at the end, we drove off a cliff....complete failure to stop any back the last 3 games..... So, with those 3 distinct eras, I wondered "who" showed up when and how they coincide with players performance ratings, injuries, etc.....Im gonna try to understand who played best and who played worst and how it all relates.... ERA 1: Everyone is healthy except John Hughes, but we have a new system to work out. So some rough edges should be expected. Rubin went down after the third game, so by game 4 both he and Hughes were out. Everyone else is pretty much available. I went game to game and broke out the top and bottom performers run defense ratings for each game. To highlight the very best and very worst players each weeK.... The #1 consistent top performer(4 games outta 6) was Carlos Dansby and the first 3 games the other best run stoppers were Kruger and Sheard. Conversely(this is where it gets interesting) the worst scores for run D went to Rubin(games 1 &2) and the 2 Bryants....but once Rubin goes down, the LB's suddenly started getting lower scores and krugers run d starts sliding. It would appear the last 3 games that the LB's are adjusting to cover more run, but not doing so well with it. Clearly, Kruger struggled the most, while Dansby and Sheard really stepped it up. So...era #1....top performers were generally linebacker and mostly Dansby & Sheard as the most effective. And the ONLY DL to score a "top rating" was John Hughes in the one game he played. ERA 2: By now we have lost Hughes, Rubin, A bryant and Taylor...plus D. Bryant & Winn are nursing injuries and missing some games too....and Hughes is almost ready to return. So, with the better part of the D-line out and/or injured, we enter into our best and most effective run D era....(weird right?)...Im thinking this is because Pettine is adjusting personnel assignments, as the one big change that happens here are the safeties....suddenly Whitner shows up as our #1 run stuffer and the run D starts functioning at it's peak. Gipson and Leonards name both start showing up too, which tells me the DB's gained run responsibility as time went on.... The top run performer during this "very good" period was clearly Donte Whitner....followed by Mingo. And these guys didn't even register in the first era. So did they start playing better? or just gain responsibility because the guys in front of them couldn't get it done......the worst rated players were all DL...D. Bryant, Fua, Rubin(in fact....Rubin was rated in the bottom 2 in almost every game he played upon his return) ERA 3: Im not gonna get too wrapped up in these last 3 games, because it was a death spiral. Just the names tell the story.....our top rated players were Poyer, Kitchen and Solomon...HA! and the bottom feeders were names like Fua, Meder, Bryant and Leonard.... Which says it all.....there was no one left...... So....with about 30 guys playing Defense over 16 games.....either Rubin(6) or D Bryant(5) were rated the worst player in 11 of them(ouch)......and Whitner(5), Dansby(4) and Sheard(4) took the honors for being rated the best against the run...consistently TOP 5 RUN STOP SCORES - (its troubling to have 2 DB's and NOT have a DL on this list) Sheard +9.4 Mingo +6.5 Whitner +5.5 Dansby +3.2 Gipson +2.7 Note: John Hughes scored very well in the few games he played and is the only D lineman to have a positive PFF this season. So...props to him anyway. BOTTOM 5 RUN STOP SCORES Rubin -9.6 D. Bryant -7.2 Fua -6.6 Winn -3.6 Taylor -3.6 Note: All DL.....everyone of them. So, my final take away is this......we started out with a radically new system and players at new positions, which Id expect to take a while to gel, but instantly lost our D line....and this put pressure on the coaches to adjust to compensate, so other players(DB's and LB's) started carrying addition run responsibilities...which lowered their overall performance too....and the D line just got worse with more injuries(never the same rotation(ever))...then some backers went down and Sheard/Mingo/Dansby all played hurt just to cover for the massively damage line..... So the line was all 2nd/3rd stringers being backed up by injured or 2nd string backers..... and, fortunately, the CB's and FS were amazing and kept it all in check so the LB's and SS could at least stay home and try to help out..... So, I see that we need help at DL(as we all thought) and that Rubin and Desmond Bryant were the 2 worst performers....and they were both really bad. Coincidentally, they are our 2 highest paid as well. And John Hughes, when he played, played really really well..... And our LB's were actually quite good and only started to slip when they had extra piled on.....and THEY definitely helped save the day during that "era 2" stretch that we played so well.... And Donte Whitner did so much more than any of us give him credit for....when Dansby was hurt and during those games we completely stopped the run, he was off the hook and the primary difference.... So...with a year in the system and the return of a healthy roster, it really DOES look like we only need to add a couple DL and replace Sheard and we can be back on track with the run D and have all the fixins for a dominant defense.....with depth.... But I do say, if we replace anybody based upon performance, it should be Rubin and D. Bryant. Thanks for all the time you put into that! Great analysis and breakdown of the trends. Terrific way to kick off a discussion. I think a lot of the data matches the eye ball test. It would be interesting to find out how they differentiate the success vrs the run for the OLBers. For example, when Kruger does his bullrush through the man - he does 1 thing I really like. He usually gets it to the depth of the QB dropback or handoff. Consequently, he maintains outside leverage/contain which turns the ballcarrier up inside toward pursuit. He may not make those tackles, but I'm guessing our defensive coaches are happy he's doing that a high percentage of the time. I'm afraid you're right about Des Bryant. He hasn't been the same since he had the heart valve procedure. Then he had wrist surgery in 2014, which probably meant he played through a lot of pain. Karlos Dansby has great first step instinct. Not only that but he always shows up extremely well prepared. When he went down, Craig Robertson really stepped up and played well. It looked like a lot of the things I like about Dansby rubbed off on Robertson. Danny Shelton in round 1 sounds better and better to me every day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clevfan4life Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 Thanks for all the time you put into that! Great analysis and breakdown of the trends. Terrific way to kick off a discussion. I think a lot of the data matches the eye ball test. It would be interesting to find out how they differentiate the success vrs the run for the OLBers. For example, when Kruger does his bullrush through the man - he does 1 thing I really like. He usually gets it to the depth of the QB dropback or handoff. Consequently, he maintains outside leverage/contain which turns the ballcarrier up inside toward pursuit. He may not make those tackles, but I'm guessing our defensive coaches are happy he's doing that a high percentage of the time. I'm afraid you're right about Des Bryant. He hasn't been the same since he had the heart valve procedure. Then he had wrist surgery in 2014, which probably meant he played through a lot of pain. Karlos Dansby has great first step instinct. Not only that but he always shows up extremely well prepared. When he went down, Craig Robertson really stepped up and played well. It looked like a lot of the things I like about Dansby rubbed off on Robertson. Danny Shelton in round 1 sounds better and better to me every day... glad to see someone else saw the same things from kruger. This is exactly why im not that high on so called stats because i dont think they reflect alot of intangibles. Krugers bull rush was infact better under horton...pets staff had krug drop some lbs to fit their scheme better. He had more sacks this year so on the surface it sounds like a win but im not so sure. I think a few of those extra sacks were because of the secondary giving our rush that extra second to get home. Kruger missed alot of sacks in hortons D, imo, because qb's could get rid of the ball in less than 2 seconds and still gouge our pass defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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