Or maybe defined.

Thanks to http://baseball.bornbybits.com/ - we can look at Hafner's struggles based on pitch type.

It's a small sample size and all, but it's still fairly telling.

He's seen a fastball more than any other pitch (51% - 217 times) and his BAA is .148 with a slg of .279

That obviously suggests that his bat speed is for shit. But he's hitting sliders very well (58 sliders with a BAA of .333 and a slg of .444) so maybe it's pitch recognition more than bat speed.

He's not hitting the curve for any bit of power (.273 BAA and slg) and he's not exactly burying the change (.222 BAA and .333 slg) so hell if I know what it all means.

The book on him is out - fastball on 0-0 (55%); fastball on 0-1 (37%); fastball on 1-0 (58%); fastball on 2-0 (71%) - steady diet of fastballs no matter the count.

Maybe his bat speed really is for shit. Unfortunately, that's not easy to correct in the cage.

Beanpot

I made a mistake taking him for my fantasy team. I really thought the guy was going to rebound. Who knows....maybe he still will.

I hope so....for the real teams sake.....but man, I suspect that guy was on roids....your right....his bat speed isn't very good....he looks like a big clumsy guy swinging a bat the 3-4 times I have been able to catch the Tribe on TV.

At the rate he is going, he won't be starting by July.

More food for thought

Also I really wanted to read the Hafner at BaseballDigest daily but the link is not working

Maybe they'll fix it

Whatever the problem is......get it fixed Travis

The Demise of Travis Hafner Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
by Peter Bendix on May 11, 2008 5:04 PM EDT

Travis Hafner will probably never again be the incredible hitter he was from 2004-2006. However, he is still far better than his current numbers would indicate. Hafner is hitting .215/.312/.347 so far this year. But when we adjust for the bad luck he has endured, his line should look more like .281/.369/.413 – at worst.

We can find a hitter’s “expected” batting average on balls in play (BABIP) by taking his line-drive percentage and adding .120. For the vast majority of hitters, any difference between expected BABIP and actual BABIP can be attributed to luck. Throughout his career, Travis Hafner’s expected BABIP has more or less aligned with his actual BABIP, as it should. Take a look:

Year Expected BABIP Actual BABIP
2004 0.306 0.35
2005 0.322 0.344
2006 0.332 0.323
2007 0.295 0.294
2008 0.356 0.267

This year, however, Hafner’s expected BABIP is far lower than his actual BABIP. If we adjust Hafner’s hits so that his actual BABIP aligns with his expected BABIP, his season line jumps from .215/.312/.347 to .281/.369/.413 – and that’s assuming all of his “lost” hits were singles, when in reality at least a couple of them would likely be extra base hits (thus raising his slugging percentage).

The tribulations of Hafner have been well-documented across the internet. Craig Brown at Baseball Digest Daily wrote a fantastic article about Hafner’s struggles. I completely agree with everything Brown says – Hafner does appear to be aging and may never regain his power stroke. While Hafner appears to be in the decline, once we adjust for luck we can see that Hafner’s “expected” batting line is very similar to his overall line from last year (.266/.385/.451). If we examine the numbers even more deeply, we can see precisely where Hafner is struggling this year.

First of all, Hafner is striking out looking far more often this year than ever before. This could be part of his decline, but it could also simply be a small sample size fluke. As hitters age, their bat speed often declines, as does their ability to make contact. However, Hafner is not having problems making contact when he swings: he’s made contact in 76% of his swings this year, as compared to 77%, 73%, and 74% over his last three seasons. This year, however, Hafner has already struck out looking 16 times – 47% of his strikeouts have been called third strikes. Last season he was called out on strikes only 35 times during the entire season, and he’s never been called out on strikes more than 37 times in any season.

Thus, it’s possible that Hafner has simply been unlucky to be called out on strikes as often as he has been this season. It’s also possible that he’s not swinging at strikes because he cannot make contact with them, but this is unlikely for a couple of reasons: first of all, Hafner is making contact when he does swing at the same rate as he has throughout his career; and Hafner’s line-drive percentage is actually higher this year than ever before. Thus, Hafner does not appear to have problems making contact (and often hard contact) with pitches. Therefore, a rise in called third strikes against him could be attributed more to bad luck and/or bad calls, rather than Hafner’s inability to make contact with the pitch.

As the amount of called third strikes against Hafner regresses to the mean, so should Hafner’s strikeout rate (currently, Hafner is striking out in 28.1% of his at bats) come down to be more in line with his career strikeout rate of 24.2% (last season, despite Hafner’s relatively poor performance, he only struck out in 21.1% of his at bats – a career low).

Throughout his career, Hafner has crushed opposing pitchers when the count was in his favor. Even last year, despite hitting .266 with a .451 SLG, Hafner still hit very well in hitters’ counts: he hit .370 with a .604 SLG after a 2-0 count (in other words, in all at bats in which the count was 2-0, but not necessarily only at bats in which he put the 2-0 pitch in play). In at bats in which there was a 3-1 count, Hafner hit .406 with a .688 SLG. These numbers aren’t surprising, as even decent hitters should do well if they are able to work the count in their favor 2-0 and/or 3-1.

What is surprising is that, this year, Hafner is hitting very poorly when the count is in his favor. In at bats where he has seen a 2-0 count, Hafner is 2-for-17 (.118) with a double. In at bats where he has seen a 3-1 count, Hafner is 1-for-9 with a double. He’s 0-for-4 when he puts a 3-1 pitch in play (as opposed to 7-for-17 last year). As the season progresses, Hafner will likely improve upon these numbers with the count in his favor.

Because Hafner’s line-drive percentage is high (23.6%), yet his BABIP is low and he’s had poor results with the count in his favor, I think we can assume that Hafner has had a string of bad luck. That’s not to say all of his struggles can be attributed to luck – as Brown aptly showed, Hafner is clearly in the decline and may never regain his power stroke. However, it is very likely that, this year, his actual BABIP will regress towards his expected BABIP, and it is very likely that Hafner will hit better when the count is in his favor. Therefore, while Hafner’s power stroke may never return to its 2004-2006 levels, Hafner’s batting average and on-base percentage should rise significantly. If they do, Hafner will still be an important, albeit overpaid, part of a championship-caliber Cleveland Indians team.


http://travis-hafner-news.newslib.com/story/5020-2494869/

I get BABIP. I like BABIP. Use it all the time when trying to figure if a guy is outperforming his talent or is seriously unlucky.

It's clear that Pronk will raise his BA by just doing what he's been doing.

The problem, as this article indicates, is his declining power.

Here's the piece from Craig Brown at Baseball Digest Daily (seriously, if you're at all interested in baseball, check out that site as often as you can) - http://www.baseballdigestdaily.com/bullpen/?option=com_...ent&task=view&id=463

All Pronked Out
Contributed by Craig Brown
Thursday, 08 May 2008
By Craig Brown

From 2004 to 2006, Travis Hafner was one of the most feared hitters in the game. Over those three seasons, he averaged a home run every 13.8 at bats while hitting .308/.419/.611. But since the beginning of 2007, Hafner has seen his power (along with most of his other numbers) slide to a home run every 24.4 at bats to go along with a line that reads more like a middle infielder than cleanup hitter - .256/.371/.432.

Through his first 31 games of 2008, Hafner has struggled mightily. He’s hitting just .209/.301/.339 with three home runs and six doubles.

What gives?

The On Base Problem

In the past, Hafner has been a Three True Outcomes kind on guy, meaning that in a large percentage of his plate appearances he either strikes out, walks or hits a home run. Going back to 2004, here are his TTO percentages:

2004: 35.9%
2005: 40.7%
2006: 44.9%
2007: 36.5%
2008: 36.8%

If you plotted out those percentages on a graph, you’d have a perfect bell curve peaking with his career year in ’06. Why the extreme fluctuation? Well, for starters his walk rate follows the same pattern:

2004: 12.4%
2005: 14.0%
2006: 18.1%
2007: 15.8%
2008: 10.9%

He set a career high in walks in 2007, but saw his rate drop by almost 2.5% because he also set a career high in plate appearances. Why the fall in 2007? Hafner began the year strong, hitting .338/.471/.550 with five home runs in April. He scored three runs and hit a solo home run on May 1 against the Blue Jays, but then he went into a tailspin. From May 3 to the end of June, Hafner hit .220/.360/.390.

So major league managers did what they are paid to do - they adjusted. In the 84 games before the All Star Break, Hafner walked 65 times which included 12 intentional passes. But once it became apparent that he was showing no signs of breaking out of his extended slump, teams began to pitch to Hafner more aggressively. In the 68 games after the break, Hafner drew only 37 walks and just five of those were intentional.

It may seem simplistic. But that’s why teams use advance scouts. If Hafner isn’t catching up to pitches or making solid contact over an extended period of time, why pitch to him as though he’s capable of a .300 average and 40 home runs? A simple adjustment from the opposition gave Hafner more pitches in the strike zone meaning fewer walks.

The rates bear this out. Over the first half of ’07 his walk rate was at 17.3% which was right about where we would expect for Hafner. But in the second half, his rate was 12.9%. There’s other data we can use as well. In 2006, pitchers threw a strike (meaning in the accepted strike zone) to Hafner 45.9% of the time. This year, they’re throwing strikes 50.4% of the time.

Pitchers don’t fear Hafner anymore, so they’re more likely to challenge him.

The Power Problem

Hafner belted 75 extra base hits in 2005 (42 doubles, 33 home runs) and 74 the following year. (31 doubles, 42 home runs and a triple thrown in for good measure.) But last season he managed only 51 extra base hits (25 doubles, 2 triples and 24 home runs.)

Hafner has never been an extreme fly ball hitter, but that’s OK. Most of the prolific power hitters (David Ortiz, Gary Sheffield in his prime and Carlos Pena last season) hit fly balls anywhere between 40%-45% of the time. Here’s Hafner’s fly ball rates over the last five seasons:

2004: 43.0%
2005: 36.8%
2006: 40.3%
2007: 34.7%
2008: 35.3%

There’s really nothing out of the ordinary from these rates. For most players, they will move from season to season and a five percentage point change isn’t going to raise any red flags.

But what about a player who is hitting fewer fly balls while seeing an even larger drop in home run rate?

Here are his HR/FB rates over the last five years:

2004: 17.3%
2005: 24.4%
2006: 30.2%
2007: 15.9%
2008: 10.0%

Wow. There’s that pesky bell curve again.

Not only is Hafner hitting fewer fly balls, he’s home run frequency is in a tailspin. It would be one thing if his power numbers were down, while his HR/FB rate was static. We could chalk that kind of drop in power as temporary; where as soon as he made the proper adjustment in his swing to generate loft, he’d be back rounding the bases with regularity in no time. But the drop in home run rate sets off all kinds of alarm bells. Not only is Hafner not generating the necessary loft on a consistent basis, he’s not driving the ball either.

No wonder his home runs are way down from his peak.

The Contact Problem

The title of this section is misleading, because Hafner doesn’t have a contact problem. But it’s a roundabout way of saying his lack of a contact problem is a symptom of the greater problem.

Get it?

Going back to 2005, Hafner makes contact roughly 75% of the time he swings the bat. Major league average is about 80%, but as we said earlier, Hafner is the classic big swinger who (in the past at least) piles up strikeouts and home runs. But over the last three seasons, he’s actually improved his contact rate to the point where it’s currently at 76.3% on the year.

And he’s making better contact. His line drive rate is 23.5%, which is the best mark of his career. Unfortunately, his line drives aren’t falling for hits. Maybe it’s the shift many teams put on him when he’s at bat. Maybe it’s because of the cold weather. It’s open for debate. But what you can’t debate is his .263 average on balls in play is freakishly low. It would seem as though he’s been the victim of some bad luck. If he gets a few more of those line drives to fall for hits, his average won’t look so anemic and his OBP will rise as well.

But there’s one fact that is undeniable: While he’s getting more pitches to hit and he’s making more contact, he’s no longer hitting for power.

Conclusion

When Hafner was struggling last year, there was some rumblings that he was distracted because of his contract situation. (He was eligible for free agency following the 2008 season, but he began talking to the Indians about an extension after 2006.) He ultimately signed a four-year, $57 million deal that keeps him in Cleveland through the 2012 season.

The conventional wisdom at the time was, with the contract issue out of the way, Hafner would find his stroke. Obviously, it hasn’t happened.

With the evidence presented here, I’m beginning to doubt it ever will.

Beanpot

Good read, thanks for the post