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Hall of Fame Legend |
At a 10 point margin, she certainly met or surpassed the standard everyone had for a "decisive victory" that allows her to stay in the race without increased pressure to drop out. But did it mean anything? Does she have a shot at the nomination?
Also, if you were a superdelegate, would you be persuaded by the argument that she is stronger in big states and battleground states than Obama is? |
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Hall of Famer |
You're right in that it's significant insofar as it allows her to stay in the race.
As for the superdelegates, if Obama ends up winning more states, more votes, and more regular delegates, I don't think I would buy the national electablity argument for swinging the superdelegates to Clinton. For one thing, Obama is plenty electable. For another, any gains based on name recognition, dodging sniper fire, or being more hawkish than Obama would have to be offset by what would have to be the most acrimonious convention since 1968 (although it's probably going to be that way anyway) and the (rightful) sense that it's a return to smoky back-room politics. Which, in a very odd way, would make Clinton II seem way more like Bush II than McCain. You'd have a member of a prominent political family succeeding on connections and dirty tricks (Obama's a Muslim is just as deceitful as McCain's black baby), going up against a guy who, whether you agree with him or not, has run an honest campaign--think of it as Bush-McCain II, with the voters rememering how well the last one turned out. Dennis |
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Skipper of the Lake Erie Booze Patrol Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters  |
One would imagine. Still it's a closer race if you count the Michigan and Florida voters. Hillary'd be a lot more competitive now with those. Also Barak does better with the furthest left, not necessarily a boon in the general election. WSS |
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Hall of Fame Legend |
"Still it's a closer race if you count the Michigan and Florida voters.
Hillary'd be a lot more competitive now with those." I think it is wrong to penalize the Democratic voters because their State decided to hold the primaries earlier then the DNC wanted them to. I think this will be resolved. |
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Hall of Famer |
Hey, those states knew the rules. I think it's idiotic that you can't question Iowa and New Hampshire's penile-compensatory obsession with going first (New Hampshire making up for being the budget Vermont, Iowa making up for being the state that everyone forgets when doing geography quizzes). Nevertheless, the party said that they couldn't move the primaries, they moved the primaries, and they have to sit this one out. Call it their Reagan vs. the Air Traffic Controllers moment. Dennis |
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Why would you ever count Michigan? Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan.
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
As for your question, Tupa, not so sure how significant it is. It's pretty much what everyone expected. I'd think if she could parlay this into a win in Indiana that would be more significant.
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Hall of Famer |
who cares hillary or obama, they both suck! and between the both of them the only thing they bring to the table is more regulations and more taxes!
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Hall of Famer |
This was already projected by all of the people who matter the most in politics.... The money groups.
What matters the most is where influence peddling groups are giving the most, hillary is almost at bankrupt and obama has more money than mccain and hillary combined. following the footprints of money/influence peddling to see into the future dem nominee is probably the most accurate. This game is over according to the pacs and money people that is why Obama has so much and hillary very little. |
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Hall of Fame Legend |
10% +/- 4% margin of error tossed in.
It appeared to me that Obama pretty much threw in the towel on Monday (at least in his Daily Show appearance). Eeeeeeyoooooore. (How do you go from being on WWE smackdown one week to turning into this the next???) While being realistic is certainly a refreshing trait, I think it would be better to stow it until he was in office. |
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
On a more literal level... does it matter? Is the race already over unless all the Superdelegates go Hillary?
It's tough to tell from paper or cable news. It's either very important or totally meaningless or somewhere in between. I'm asking for reals. |
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Skipper of the Lake Erie Booze Patrol Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Hey, those states knew the rules. Yes they did. Not arguing that. What I'm saying is the superdelegates will need to consider that when making a decision as to who would do better in the general, in which the two states will probably be allowed to vote. WSS |
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Skipper of the Lake Erie Booze Patrol Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
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Hall of Fame Legend |
Hillary cant catch him with just the states that are left, no. But she can get it close enough that she would only need a thin majority of the superdelegates to win the nomination. In fact, at least one commentator thinks she can win if the superdelegates all vote the way their states did - I assume that is because the larger states have more superdelegates, but I dont know. Where I think she has a very strong case is with Mich and FL. I dont think anyone disagrees that the demographics in those two states make it look like she would win there next week, next month, or next year. As the votes were counted originally, their inclusion would put her ahead in the popular vote and significantly close the delegate gap. How the Dems plan to get away with ignoring that, I dont know. On a sidenote, politicians will say funny things to win an argument. Is Obama really trying to argue that the fact that he has won more states should matter at all? He might want to run away from those comments come November when just about any Republican alive or dead could carry the midwest and south with lifting a finger (Bush won 31 states to Kerry's 19+DC). To be clear - this isnt a broad criticism of Obama, so leave the "PARTISAN!" cries at home. I'm just pointing out a silly idea put forth by a politician. |
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Skipper of the Lake Erie Booze Patrol Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Anybody wonder what it'd be like if Biden had made the cut?
WSS |
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Hall of Fame Legend |
Another interesting note, and one that calls into question the wisdom of the Dem primary math, is that Hillary has won states with 240 electoral votes (284 if you include FL and Mich) while Obama's wins have come in states with only 202 electoral votes. But Obama is on place to win. Weird.
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Thanks, Toop.
Both candidates are claiming a "real majority" right now, which makes it more confusing. I've been favoring Obama, but I'm now worried that he's an easy target. Gallup has either ahead of McCain, but not by a lot. |
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Hall of Famer |
the money influx for her campaign evidently shows that this win is important.
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Hall of Fame Legend |
i agree |
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Yeah, it changes the media narrative from "Why doesn't she get out?" to "Why can't Obama close the deal?" even though Pennsylvania came in exactly how just about everyone thought it would.
Media narratives are important. And easy to change. |
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