Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Monday, August 04, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisementThe Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.

This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3 (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters now see Obama as politically liberal while 65% see McCain as politically conservative. Among liberals, 71% see Obama as one of them, but just 18% of liberals see Obama as Very Liberal. Among conservatives, 71% say McCain is also a conservative, including 38% who say he is Very Conservative. Thirty-five percent (35%) of politically moderate voters say that McCain is politically moderate and 33% say the same of Obama. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats see McCain as conservative while 69% of Republicans see Obama as liberal (see other recent demographic highlights).

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust McCain more than Obama on energy issues while Obama is trusted more by 42%. Two months ago, Obama had a four point edge on the energy issue (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends). The presumptive Democratic nominee is addressing economic issues in Michigan this morning and Rasmussen Reports will release polling data at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on his key proposals (available for Premium Members now at the Daily Snapshot).

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that our society is generally fair and decent (Premium Members can review Crosstabs and Trends).

Other key stats of Election 2008 are updated daily at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.

Polling data released earlier today showed that 46% say Affirmative Action programs are no longer necessary, but 32% believe they should continue.

The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points in July. Obama’s party still enjoys a big advantage over the GOP, but the gap between the parties is the smallest it has been since January.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters have seen or heard news coverage of McCain’s ad including Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Just 22% believe the ad was racist. But, most say Obama’s comment about not looking like other Presidents on the dollar bill was racist.

Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports takes a look at the week’s key polls to see What They Told Us. Earlier, Rasmussen Reports released data on a topic of interest to poll junkies and armchair campaign analysts alike--day-of-week polling bias. There is little evidence to support the notion that some days of the week poll better for Republicans while other days are better for Democrats.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 60.0% chance of winning the White House.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Each update includes approximately 900 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 800 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

I tell you again - the bark is falling off the ugly Obamas tree.

and I wasn't kidding when I first said it, either.

Obama is becoming the most falsely marketed, unqualified to be commander-in-chief and president nominee in HISTORY.

AND he's a socialist. And that isn't American.

The state by state polling is more interesting.

Here's fivethirtyeight.com's projection:

This thread is already dated. Obama is up 3 in today's Gallup, up 7 in the latest conventional poll.

quote:

Originally posted by shepwrite:
This thread is already dated.

Sort of like ALL of this talk about polls (from both sides) will be "dated" come November 4th.

Not to belabor a point, but I did the Obama turn on this exact thread, and mine was pulled. Why?

You live by fivethirtyeight.com, you die by fivethirtyeight.com...

quote:

Today's Polls, 8/4

Up until now, I have been urging caution in (over)interpreting the results of the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, which had shown the presidential race tightening to a near-tie in recent days. Although the tracking numbers are important sources of information, this trend had not really been reflected in much of the state polling, nor in other, one-off national polls.

Today, however, we have a set of state polling out that does indicate some tightening in the race:



The most interesting results are in Florida and Massachusetts. In Florida, SurveyUSA shows John McCain ahead by 6 points. The only other time it had polled Florida, back in late February, McCain had been ahead by 2. This result is driven in part by SurveyUSA's party identification figures; SurveyUSA does not adjust its results for partisan ID, and they drew a sample that gives the Republicans a 43-38 edge in party affiliation. The conventional wisdom is that party affiliation in Florida should be about evenly divided or somewhat tilted to the Democrats; nevertheless, there may be some softening in the Democrats' party ID edge nationwide, perhaps because of the improved situation on the ground in Iraq.

The Massachusetts poll from Suffolk is interesting mostly for the trendline; Obama leads by 9 points now after having led by 23 points in June. He experienced a particular decline among men: perhaps McCain's 'Celebrity' advertising campaign, which among other things seeks to emasculate Obama, has had more resonance with men than with women.

Apart from the state polls, there are now a couple of national polls that show McCain with a slight lead. One is the Rasmussen national tracker, which has McCain ahead 47-46, and the other is a new telephone survey from Zogby, which has McCain up 42-41.

Throwing everything together, we still see Obama with a national lead of about 2 points, but polling over the past 72 hours has indicated an even tighter race. Obama faces an interesting decision about whether to try and get out in front of the news cycle and create some drama of his own -- perhaps with a VP selection or some aggressive lines of attack against John McCain -- or to let the cycle play out organically, hoping that McCain's negative advertising will begin to backfire on him.

I thought it interesting. I watched the news, and they referred to the angry reaction of the Obama camp vs the negative McCain ad that featured Britaney Spears.

Then they showed that back in 2004, at some event, Obama actually said "I am so overexposed, that it makes Britany Spears look like a recluse"

Then I just saw a very negative ad about McCain from the Obama camp.

This is surely going to be the most intriguing pres election ever. But not for good reasons, I don't think.