Obama has a 5 point lead in the latest traditional poll, Time Magazine, just out today. He had a 6 point lead two days ago in the AP poll, 7 points by CNN.

While the trackers have varied (Obama leads both, but not by as much), the traditional polls have been consistent, around 5-7 points.

Some interesting stuff in here for both sides:

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1829948,00.html

CBS, too. Unchanged since a month ago, still 6 points. Traditional polls have been remarkably steady throughout:

(CBS) Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent in the latest CBS News poll. Despite Obama's highly-publicized foreign trip and McCain's recent high-profile advertisements, the findings are unchanged since a CBS News/New York Times poll released last month. The percentage of undecided voters - 13 percent - also remains steady.

Polls are a way of sticking your finger in the air to see which way the wind blow. I personally am disappointed with both of these idiots, and I am surprised Obama does not have a much, much larger lead. That has to be disconcerting to his camp.

And tomorrow a Poll will arive where Obama is behind. Don't mean a thing - none at all.

Actually, DD, Zogby (smaller? poll), has already found a couple days ago that McCain was ahead. But I agree. Polls are like weathervanes.

The direction of the breeze can reverse direction many times.

quote:

Originally posted by shepwrite:
Obama has a 5 point lead in the latest traditional poll, Time Magazine, just out today. He had a 6 point lead two days ago in the AP poll, 7 points by CNN.

While the trackers have varied (Obama leads both, but not by as much), the traditional polls have been consistent, around 5-7 points.

IMHO, this 'steady gap' cannot be comforting to Obama and Co.

McCAIN IS A LAME CANDIDATE. I WILL NOT VOTE FOR HI.

Still, he hangs around. Like a sporting event when your opponent is allowed to hang around.

I am not quite sure why Obama isn't pulling away.

Another wild-card, one that I have yet to have read about is the, apparent, high rate of voter registration - mostly young with a propensity to vote for Obama.

Not sure if or how this 'factor' fits into the polls. I've done quite a bit of research and know that forecasting is part art and part science.

The Companies that commission these polls are pretty sophisticated so I am not claiming that they are not drawing a representative sample - at the moment - weighting responses based on the original sample, etc.

If the representative sample is changing due to the apparent bubble of new registrars, then the 'gap' may (or may not) increase over time.

Of course, there are a lot of moving parts.

I'm sure we're learning a lot about voter tendencies AND polls ability to measure a technologically changing world.

The ONLY interesting take here is that in traditional polls, after all the storm and noise, Obama's lead is very consistent: Between 5 and 7 points for months, with even the undecideds unchanged.

I think McCain gets a small-ish edge on process here. If Obama's 18-25 vote really does show up (for once), a surprisingly large percentage of them are cell phone only. I'm guessing that adds up to another point or two, max.

Obama's lying low for the next week, probably as much for strategy as comfort ("Obama Fatique" can mean two things).

quote:

Originally posted by shepwrite:
I'm sure we're learning a lot about voter tendencies AND polls ability to measure a technologically changing world.

The ONLY interesting take here is that in traditional polls, after all the storm and noise, Obama's lead is very consistent: Between 5 and 7 points for months, with even the undecideds unchanged.

I think McCain gets a small-ish edge on process here. If Obama's 18-25 vote really does show up (for once), a surprisingly large percentage of them are cell phone only. I'm guessing that adds up to another point or two, max.

Obama's lying low for the next week, probably as much for strategy as comfort ("Obama Fatique" can mean two things).

Fair points, Shep.

Remember, the best any poll is project + / - 5%, 95% of the time. Therefore, 5 of those 7ish points are within statisitcal error.

I will write my opinion on Political Polls when I have time and when my belly is, at least partially, filled with crisp PBRs.

In short,though, I believe they can provide a great disservice to the Democratic Process, but I will leave this discussion for another beer.

quote:

This is like comparing the Vegas line daily for the Squeelers game this fall.

Agreed, actually. It's a diversion at best.

Easiest way to keep up is here. Obama's average lead has been edging up for several days now:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Some interesting questions AND answers on the "static" polling. Basically, Obama can't pull away and McCain can't catch up.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/08/the-poll-pictur.html