quote:
Originally posted by Aloysius:
True, Steve.

But what Ikenberry is saying is that we can build strong international institutions so that we won't be abused by the next superpower fifty to one-hundred years down the line.

I think that's a pretty good idea.


It doesn't matter what he's saying Alo.
To me, all that matters is that the slide takes a lot longer than the years I have left. Then I won't be around to care. Time moves slowly. I hope.

As Plato said eventually a democratic society will vote itself more than those who produce can provide.
Look at us in just 200 years.

Germany and England used to be manufacturing superpowers.
WW2 came along and then it was us.
We regulated and taxed and unionized the manufacturing to places where poor people work cheap. Enter China on the upswing.

When we kicked ass, we imported Chinese and Irish and Polish and Italians and Hungarians and Mexicans and the rest.

The strongest countries have the best weapons.
Genghis Khan had the bow and arrow.
We had the atom bomb.
Soon enough every jerkwater psychotic with a few acres of sand or jungle will have one.
We're out of open space and we have competition.

We can bully, bribe or kiss the asses of whatever other countries we want and in less than a century it's gonna be somebody else on top.

We have food and weapons right now.
Spices tea cotton gold oil, all commodities worthy of wars in days gone by. Hopefully wheat's next?

If we don't keep up with the food and develop weapons a lot worse than what we have, someone brutal enough will wipe us out.

Caesar got complacent.
The barbarians didn't.

WSS

edit I took out one eventually.
<G>

While we're definitely losing part of our manufacturing sector, the truth is our economic position hasn't weakened significantly:



And as economic historians have pointed out, we were strongest economically (relative to the rest of the world) in 1945, when Europe was in ruins and we had built a military-economic powerhouse.

If we're converging on a economic situation in which the EU, US, China, and the rest of Asia are at economic parity, then maybe we can avoid a situation in which a new economic/military superpower takes advantage of the United States.

In other words, the US can use the unipolar moment to build strong international institutions so that we're the last hyperpower. If China becomes much stronger than us economically, they'll still be restrained by the international system we've created.

I hope you are right Aloy, but the one thing in the back of my head says that a new super weapon will displace the Nuke option.

WHEN and yes I did say when we have a working missile defense system that is space based with a backup terra based system that will destabilize the world powers.

I graduated with a couple really good friends that work at Nasa and the odd statments they leave in some of our conversations lead my to believe we already have extremely powerful solid state lasers that are spaced based. That of course is conjecture but one that is based from tech discussions from a guy who was doing theoritical mathematics at 16 who I graduated with in undergrad. I know china and the Us has already launched satellite killing missiles but that is a delayed response to something they already believe is a threat and I am not talking about knocking out communications.

I am digressing, I agree with in principle but if history has taught us anything it is that competing societies sooner or later find something to destabilize the competition for natural rescources be it economic,political, technical or military. The US based corps that are morphing into multi national entities are not exactly going to be willing to share influence. Sooner or later something will change to the detriment and or benefit for the select beneficiaries.

quote:

In other words, the US can use the unipolar moment to build strong international institutions so that we're the last hyperpower. If China becomes much stronger than us economically, they'll still be restrained by the international system we've created.

Agreed, but how do you measure when/if China ever becomes equal to, much less stronger than, the US economically? The average income of a Chinese family is still much, much less than that of the average American family. How does a nation with only one coast, much less arable land, growing desertification, and 5x the population of the US ever really achieve the same level of economic power as the United States?

I am not saying that it can't happen, but China's rise isn't necessarily a signal of America's downfall -- I think this is where your point about the institutions that we have created will end up paying dividends in the long run.

What I am trying to say is that if China ever becomes much stronger than the US and the rest of the international community that it WILL NOT be restrained by the international system that exists today. However, I highly doubt that it will ever reach the level of single dominance that the US has enjoyed over the last 20 years. It just has too much to overcome IMO.

quote:

Originally posted by 橄榄球迷:
What I am trying to say is that if China ever becomes much stronger than the US and the rest of the international community that it WILL NOT be restrained by the international system that exists today. However, I highly doubt that it will ever reach the level of single dominance that the US has enjoyed over the last 20 years. It just has too much to overcome IMO.

I agree with both points.

Part of the reason the US has become so strong is that other countries have treated us as a benevolent hegemon. We provide public goods like security & economic aid, and they in turn tolerate our running amok across the globe.

I don't think China will ever be able to achieve that level of power, but creating international institutions that provide some of those public goods will help prevent them from doing so.

We will all be dead by the time that happens, living in paradise or in eternal darkness.

According to most scientists, the sun has reached its "half life" of 5 billion years. So, theoretically, it has another 5 BILLION years to go before it snuffs out.

Bottom line, we are just little ants who pretend to mean something. Do we? Don't know. But time is eternal. Time will tell. By the way, what is time? Is it real? Or man made? Time in actuality is nothing more then movement, wearing out because of movement. There is no actual "time".

What about agriculture after the sun goes out? How will we farm?
Will we all go hungry?

On the flip side, we won't have to worry about skin cancer from repeated serious sunburn.

In 5 billion years, I'll have to get new tires on my tractor.

In... hey, wait a minute...