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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
I have no idea what's going happen, but here's my guess:
North Carolina: Obama by 7 Indiana: Clinton by 9 |
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Feel free to add your own.
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Hall of Fame Legend |
I'd agree. Except I think it will be closer in NC if Bill can get out the vote using more of Hillary's new "cowboy" image rhetoric she's been honing recently (
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Pro Bowl Player |
North Carolina: Obama by 7
Indiana: Hillary by between 4 and 5 However, the most important poll number will be exit polls showing African Americans in North Carolina going close to 90/10 for Obama over Clinton. That will tell the superdelegates that crowning Hillary over Obama would result in the Democrats' most loyal voting bloc staying home in November. And I think (& hope) that will be enough to get the superdelegates to flood to Obama. |
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Hmm. I'm not so sure that's going to happen. If anything, I see it the other way, with superdelegates wondering if Obama's too weak among lower and middle class whites in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana.
I think he'd have to get pretty close, or win, in Indiana to change anything. I think it's probably more likely this goes to June. |
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Pro Bowl Player |
Could be. I've lost all objectivity when it comes to the Clinton-Obama race.
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
It's been a wild one, that's for sure.
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Skipper of the Lake Erie Booze Patrol Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters  |
Clinton by 6-7 in Indy.
Obama by 3 in the NC shocker. Unclaimed delegates begin to panic. WSS |
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Interesting take.............I can see her winning both states...........that would be the shocker
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
If either of them wins both, that's big news. Otherwise, I don't think it changes expectations much.
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Pro Bowl Player |
After thinking about it some more, I think Heck's right.
I think another big Obama win among African American voters will seriously damage Hillary Clinton. The CW right now is that the Rev. Wright scandal will hurt Obama among African Americans, and there's some polling data that suggests that may be true. But I think what's happening is the inverse of the Wilder Effect. African American voters don't want to tell a pollster that they support the Wright-tainted Obama, but their private feelings are that it's even more important than support Obama now that issues of race have seemingly begun to take him down. So Hillary's weakness among African Americans will seriously weaken her. Unfortunately, the West Virginia primary is only a week away, and Hillary's heavily favored to win it. So Hillary will be able to tell superdelegates to wait until after that contest, and she'll celebrate that victory as if she's won the lottery. The two candidates will then trade victories in the following primaries, and we'll be stuck with this awful contest until June. The only thing that could stop this clusterf*ck is Obama garnering a major endorsement. John and Elizabeth Edwards just announced that they won't endorse, so that leaves Al Gore as the only person capable of stopping this madness. I hope he does the right thing. |
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Pro Bowl Player |
Blacks will support Obama by at least 90 percent. Why? Because he is Black. That is the ONLY reason. If you think otherwise your being foolish. But the fact is that Blacks only make up about 14 percent of the population of the US so there turnout in a general election is not really going to make a difference in the outcome.
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Skipper of the Lake Erie Booze Patrol Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Well that's probably kind of true. They're gonna vote Democrat though and will pick Barak over Hillary for that reason. If the politics are similar go for the next tie breaker. But: I don't think they'd vote for Alan Keyes over her. WSS |
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
So that's "probably kind of true" but it isn't true at all in the Alan Keyes case? Doesn't that mean it's "probably not true"?
What about Jack E. Robinson? He's black. Runs against Ted Kennedy every six years. How come all the blacks in Massachusetts don't vote for him? What about Michael Steele? He ran for Senate in Maryland. And lost the black vote. How come Hillary was leading Obama among black voters for months? This is the kind of dime-store analysis we expect from people who have little regard for blacks in general. And apparently if we think otherwise we're being "foolish." Also that a voting block that makes up 13% of the population doesn't make a difference in the general election. Um, sure. |
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Skipper of the Lake Erie Booze Patrol Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
Well since you're just bickering I did say they went to the second tie breaker. See this is among Democrats as you may have been able to figure out. For whatever reasons the black communtity and their "leadership" has chosen, black conservatives or those who "act all white" don't fare very well. Great. Pelting Steele with Oreo cookies was a class act. Calling Condi "the house nigger" was something to be proud of. Powell as Uncle Tom? Brilliant. But since (even you admit) there's very little difference between Hillary and Barak policy wise, and given that the Clintons were very popular among those voters, there may be another reason for one voting block to vote against her nine to one. If you have a better reason let's hear it. If not, please feel free to drop the old racism charge. This is the kind of dime-store analysis we expect from people who have little regard for blacks in general. Whoomp. There it is. WSS |
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
No one is saying that race isn't a factor. Saying it's the "only" reason blacks for a person means you don't know anything about black voters, or voters in general. Saying black voters don't make a difference in the general election means you don't know anything about elections, either.
Neither statement is true. As for your feelings about black voters -- criminals, illiterates, and welfare recipients, as you repeatedly referred to them -- I think I'm on pretty firm ground there. But cheer up. Looks like you've found someone else who shares your contempt for blacks. Let me ask you this, Steve: is "seeing one of your own" elected to higher office a phenomenon that's limited to black voters? And doesn't Barack Obama "act all white"? Don't blacks hate that, according to you? |
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Pro Bowl Player |
Oh quit your "contempt" for blacks Bullsh---t. I merely stated a fact and you automaticaly label me a racist. Your a phoney.
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Skipper of the Lake Erie Booze Patrol Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
He did pay his dues at the hand of Rev Wright, no? Do you think he gets a bigger percentage of that vote because of backlash against what is seen as Wright bashing? Be honest. Here's something to ponder. Not a jab. Resolved: "On balance, race based problems in the US today are more due to blacks attitudes toward whites than white attitudes toward blacks." What do you think? WSS |
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Numbers Retired and hangs in the rafters |
I'm not saying you made either statement. You only agreed in part. I was addressing both of you.
DieHard still thinks it's true. He says his statements were "facts". Do you agree with him? Doesn't sound like you do. "Blacks will support Obama by at least 90 percent. Why? Because he is Black. That is the ONLY reason. If you think otherwise your being foolish." Well, Steve, is that a fact, or are you being foolish? |
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Pro Bowl Player |
>>I have no idea what's going happen, but here's my guess: North Carolina: Obama by 7 Clinton by 9>>
Your guess is better than mine. I hope that Clinton surprises and takes both states. The one thing that I do know is that the Dems nomination process is a mess. Maybe enough to trigger a lawsuit by the losing candidate. First of all, both Michigan and Florida are out of the picture. Then you have the issue of Superdelegates who, by definition, are designed as a buffer against the voice of the voters. I'd love to see major fights at the convention. If Clinton loses, I would love to see her run as a third party candidate. Afterall, the Party has decided to cannibalize her. |
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