How Far is the US From Food Shortages and Food Riots?

Even the United States is not immune from the potential for food shortages, food riots and food insecurity. We’re just blind to the possibility.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0407/p08s01-comv.html

article below from link.

Americans may fret that Wheat Thins cost 15 percent more than a year ago but in poor nations, such price hikes aren't taken lightly. In Ivory Coast last week, women rioted against higher food costs, leaving one person dead.

In Haiti, four people were killed in protests last week over a 50 percent rise in the cost of food staples in the past year. From Egypt to Vietnam, price rises of 40 percent or more for rice, wheat, and corn are stirring unrest and forcing governments to take drastic steps, such as blocking grain exports and arresting farmers who hoard surpluses.

The UN International Fund for Agriculture predicts food riots will become common on the world scene for at least a year. The World Bank says 33 countries face unrest from higher prices in both food and energy.

Even in grain-rich America, wholesale food prices are rising at a rate not seen in 27 years. The most acute "ag-flation," however, is in Asia and Africa, where food costs take up a higher proportion of family income. And the face of hunger is now seen more in cities as a historic shift takes place with more than half of the world's population soon to be living in or near urban areas.

The food price hikes may not be temporary, according to the UN World Food Program, which sees long-lasting causes, such as spreading deserts and more demand for grain-fed meat. The WFP itself, which feeds about 73 million of the most destitute people, warns its rich donor nations that it will require more money for some time to come. Its latest need: $500 million more by May 1.

The food price crisis has created a welcome stir about government policy. Last week, World Bank President Robert Zoellick called for increased agricultural production in poorer nations while warning rich countries not to set up more trade protection and subsidies for farmers. "This economic isolationism signals a defeatism that will reap losses, not the gains, of globalization," he said.

Indeed, a government's attempt to control food markets, either for farmers or for urban dwellers, often creates the kind of distortions that contribute to higher prices. One of the worst examples is a rush by Europe and the US to devote more farmland to growing biofuels – a dubious action to curb greenhouse gases. In 2008, about 18 percent of grain in the US will go to make ethanol and, according to the Earth Policy Institute, such production over the past two years could have fed nearly 250 million people.

UN officials are split over their high priority given to biofuels in the fight against climate change, with Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon now suggesting a review of that policy. But international bodies also need to review reduced investment in agricultural productivity. A second "green revolution" from scientific research, like that seen during the 1960s, could transform farming once again.

In Asia, where two-thirds of the poor live, growth in farm productivity is down to 1 percent a year compared with 2.5 percent two decades ago. More money needs to go toward research in creating new strains of grain and toward better irrigation. Too many nations are rushing to industrialize and urbanize at the expense of farmers.

Food riots signal the need to rethink global stability and the critical role of those who till the land and feed us all.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and...ord-high-805778.html

I don't think it is impossible for that to happen and think everybody needs to have a supply of food on hand.

Rice and beans hold for years if kept dry.

I wouldn't call myself a survivalist by any means, but I have a few hundred pounds of the two stocked in food grade tubs along with enough salt to cook the stuff.

That would keep my wife and I going for a year or more if necessary.

quote:

Originally posted by ballpeen:
I don't think it is impossible for that to happen and think everybody needs to have a supply of food on hand.

Rice and beans hold for years if kept dry.

I wouldn't call myself a survivalist by any means, but I have a few hundred pounds of the two stocked in food grade tubs along with enough salt to cook the stuff.

That would keep my wife and I going for a year or more if necessary.

Would also keep you supplied in enough gas for a year.

I think you guys can relax. America has plenty of food and always will.

Haiti may have problems affording food, but we're not Haiti.

quote:

Originally posted by heckofajobBrownie:
I think you guys can relax. America has plenty of food and always will.

Haiti may have problems affording food, but we're not Haiti.

and what would we do if China bought up all of our farms?

Mr. T, I can never tell if you're a real Ron Paul/9/11 Truther/conspiracy theorist, or a performance artist doing a parody of one.

It's going to be okay, man. Really. The Chinese aren't going to starve us all. In fact, I recommend the twice cooked pork.

quote:

Originally posted by heckofajobBrownie:
Mr. T, I can never tell if you're a real Ron Paul/9/11 Truther/conspiracy theorist, or a performance artist doing a parody of one.

It's going to be okay, man. Really. The Chinese aren't going to starve us all. In fact, I recommend the twice cooked pork.

I got one better a very popular Chinese restaurant down here got a call a few years ago and what the fireman discovered was a several hundred dead cat carcasses


Yummy Pork?!

China's Shrinking Grain Harvest

http://www.stevequayle.com/News.alert/04_Global/040322.China.grain.html

March 10, 2004

How its growing grain imports will affect world food prices

On February 8, the Chinese government announced an emergency appropriation, increasing its agricultural budget by 25 percent, or roughly $3 billion. The additional funds primarily will be used to raise support prices for wheat and rice, the principal food staples, and to improve irrigation infrastructure. For the State Council to approve such an increase outside of the normal budget-making process indicates the government's mounting concern about food security.

After a remarkable expansion of grain output from 90 million tons in 1950 to 392 million tons in 1998, China's grain harvest has fallen in four of the last five years -- dropping to 322 million tons in 2003. For perspective, this drop of 70 million tons exceeds the entire grain harvest of Canada.

Production of each of the three grains that dominate China's agriculture -- wheat, rice, and corn -- has dropped. But the output of wheat, grown mostly in the water-short north, has fallen the most. With wheat stocks falling and domestic prices climbing, Chinese wheat-buying delegations recently have visited several grain-exporting countries. Initial purchases of some 5 million tons in Australia, Canada, and the United States have already sent world wheat prices climbing.

The recent price rises may be only the early tremors before the quake, however. China's harvest shortfalls of recent years have been covered by drawing down its once massive stocks of grain. But these will soon be depleted, forcing the government to cover the shortfall with imports.

China's wheat harvest fell short of consumption last year by 19 million tons. When the country's wheat stocks are depleted within the next year or so, the entire shortfall will have to be covered from imports. In some ways, the rice deficit is even more serious. Trying to cover a rice shortfall of 20 million tons in a world where annual rice exports total only 26 million tons could create chaos in the world rice economy. And with a corn shortfall of 15 million tons and stocks already largely depleted, China may soon have to import corn as well.

GRAIN DEMAND CLIMBING

The handwriting on the wall is clear. While grain production is dropping, demand is climbing, driven up by the addition of 11 million people per year and by fast-rising incomes. As people in China earn more, they are moving up the food chain, eating more grain-fed livestock products such as pork, poultry, eggs, and, to a lesser degree, beef and milk.

The fall in China's grain harvest is due largely to a shrinkage of the grain harvested area from 90 million hectares in 1998 to 76 million hectares in 2003. Several trends are converging to reduce the grain area, including the loss of irrigation water, desert expansion, the conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses, the shift to higher-value crops, and a decline in double-cropping due to the loss of farm labor in the more prosperous coastal provinces.

Water tables are falling throughout the northern half of China. As aquifers are depleted and irrigation wells go dry, farmers either revert to low-yield dryland farming or, in the more arid regions, abandon farming altogether. In the competition for scarce water, China's cities and industry invariably get first claim, leaving farmers with a shrinking share of a shrinking supply. Losing irrigation water may mean either abandoning land or less double cropping.

China's farmers are also losing land to expanding deserts, such as the Gobi, which is consuming an additional 4,000 square miles each year. Paying farmers in the north and west to plant their grainland to trees to halt these advancing deserts is further reducing the grain area.

Urban expansion, industrial construction, and highway construction are all shrinking the land available for crops. The enthusiasm for establishing development zones for commercial and residential building or industrial parks in the hope of attracting investment and jobs is taking big chunks of cropland. The Ministry of Land and Resources reports that some 6,000 development zones and industrial parks cover some 3.5 million hectares.

Cars, too, are taking a toll. Every 20 cars added to China's automobile fleet require the paving of an estimated 0.4 hectares of land (1 acre -- roughly the area of a football field) for parking lots, streets, and highways. Thus the 2 million new cars sold in 2003 meant paving over an area equal to 100,000 football fields.

In a country where farms average 1.6 acres (0.6 hectares), many grain farmers are shifting to higher-value fruits and vegetables to boost income. In each of the last 11 years, the area in fruits and vegetables has increased, expanding by an average of 1.3 million hectares a year.

In the more prosperous coastal provinces, the migration of farm labor to cities has made it more difficult to double-crop land. For example, the once widespread practice of planting winter wheat and summer corn depends on quickly harvesting the wheat when it ripens in June and immediately preparing the seedbed to plant the corn. Many villages no longer have enough able-bodied workers to make this quick transition -- and the double-cropped area is shrinking as a result.

CHALLENGING TRENDS

Reversing the fall in grain production will not be easy even with China's newly adopted economic incentives. Each trend that is shrinking the grainland area has a great deal of momentum. Reversing any one of them would take an enormous effort. Reversing all of them is inconceivable. If the new economic incentives should coincide with unusually favorable weather this year, a modest upturn in grain production might result, but it will likely be only temporary.

China is the first major grain-producing country where environmental and economic trends have combined to reverse the historical growth in grain production. This decline in the grain harvest in a country that is home to more than one-fifth of the world's people will affect all of us.

Barring an economic collapse, China soon will be forced to turn to the world market for massive imports of 30, 40, or 50 million tons per year. This comes at a time when world grain stocks are at their lowest level in 30 years and when US farmers are losing irrigation water to aquifer depletion and to cities. Among other things, this means that the surplus world grain production capacity and cheap food of the last half-century may soon be history. Higher food prices could become a permanent part of the economic landscape. Adjusting to these higher food prices could become a dominant preoccupation of governments in the years ahead.

When China turns to the world market, it will necessarily turn to the United States, which controls nearly half of world grain exports. This presents an unprecedented geopolitical situation in which 1.3 billion Chinese consumers who have a $120-billion trade surplus with the United States -- enough to buy the entire U.S. grain harvest twice over -- will compete with Americans for US food, likely driving up food prices for the United States and the world.

Moving grain from the United States to China on the scale that is needed will likely involve loading two or three ships every day. The long line of grain-laden ships that may soon stretch across the Pacific will bring these two countries closer together economically, but managing the flow of grain to optimize the benefits for people in both countries will not be easy. It could become one of the major US foreign policy challenges of this new century.

http://www.agriculture.com/default.sph/agNotebook.class...le_html___8683___826

quote:

Originally posted by heckofajobBrownie:
I think you guys can relax. America has plenty of food and always will.

Haiti may have problems affording food, but we're not Haiti.

and you were saying.......................
Wal-Mart's Sam's Club Limits Rice Purchases Nationwide

http://standeyo.com/NEWS/08_Food_Water/080423.Sams.limits.rice.html


April 23, 2008
By Nicole Maestri
Reuters

Sam's Club warehouse division said on Wednesday it is limiting sales of several types of rice, the latest sign that fears of a rice shortage are rippling around the world.

Sam's Club, the No. 2 U.S. warehouse club operator, said it is limiting sales of Jasmine, Basmati and long grain white rice "due to recent supply and demand trends."

U.S. rice futures hitting an all-time high Wednesday on worries about supply shortages.

On Tuesday, Costco Wholesale Corp, the largest U.S. warehouse club operator, said it has seen increased demand for items like rice and flour as customers, worried about global food shortages and rising prices, stock up.

Sam's Club, the No. 2 U.S. warehouse club operator, is limiting sales of the 20-pound (9 kg), bulk bags of rice to four bags per customer per visit, and is working with suppliers to ensure the products remain in stock.

Warehouse clubs cater to individual shoppers as well as small businesses and restaurant owners looking to buy cheaper, bulk goods.

With prices for basic food items surging, customers have been going to the clubs to try to save money on bulk sizes of everything from pasta to cooking oil and rice.

Sam's Club said the large-sized bags of rice subject to the limits are typically purchased by its restaurant owner or food service customers.

Sam's Club said is not limiting sales of flour or cooking oil at this time. Costco said some of its stores have put limits on sales of items such as rice and flour, but it was trying to modify those restrictions to meet customer demand.

Costco Chief Executive James Sinegal told Reuters that he believed the recent surge in demand was being driven by media reports about rising global demand and shortages of basic food items in some countries.

Food costs have soared worldwide, spurred by increased demand in emerging markets like China and India; competition with biofuels; high oil prices and market speculation.

The situation has sparked food riots in several African countries, Indonesia, and Haiti. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has warned that higher food prices could hurt global growth and security.

Rice prices have risen 68 percent since the start of 2008.

Trade bans on rice have been put in place by India, the world's second largest exporter in 2007, and Vietnam, the third biggest, in hopes of cooling domestic prices. Rice is a staple in most of Asia.

On Tuesday, Tim Johnson, president-CEO of California Rice Commission, which represents growers and millers of rice in the state, said: "Bottom line, there is no rice shortage in the United States. We have supplies."

Wal-Mart shares were up 0.4 percent to $56.80 in afternoon trading, while Costco shares rose 1.7 percent to $69.26.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2323679120080423

quote:

Originally posted by Westside Steve:

quote:

Originally posted by heckofajobBrownie:
I think you guys can relax. America has plenty of food and always will.

Haiti may have problems affording food, but we're not Haiti.

Hope so.
But you're a global warming guy.
You don't see at least a wee tiny worldwide red flag??
They're clearing the rain forest as we type.

WSS

We're so far from worrying about food, bro. Actually we supply tons and tons of food world wide.

We don't have a food crises. But since the world does, than we also have a crises. We feed a lot of people.

Meanwhile, we're spending $1 billion monthly to get Iraqi's to play nice.

quote:

We don't have a food crises. But since the world does, than we also have a crises. We feed a lot of people.

No kidding.
The more they reproduce the more we have to feed and the more to come here when they starve.

Meanwhile, we're spending $1 billion monthly to get Iraqi's to play nice.

Not related.
But:
Turning corn into ethanol is.

North American Union would grow almost all of the worlds food.
Or they can eat oil.
WSS
WSS[/b]